Did Hassan Nasrallah learn a lesson from the last two days? Losing over 3,000 operatives in a 48-hour period over your own incompetent strategic planning and execution should have provided an impulse toward introspection, at the very least. Right?

Apparently not. While the leader of Hezbollah acknowledged that Israel's Pagercide dealt them a "severe blow," Nasrallah insisted that he would continue chucking missiles at northern Israel, as his terror army has done for the last eleven months. Oh, and he also complained that exploding pagers were "an act of war," too:

Hezbollah leader Hasan Nasrallah called the two days of deadly blasts linked to electronic devices in Lebanon this week an “act of war” by Israel, as the Israeli military stepped up strikes on southern Lebanon, flew warplanes over Beirut, and approved plans for the next stage of the conflict along the border between the two countries.

“The enemy transgressed all boundaries and redlines,” Nasrallah said in a widely anticipated speech Thursday evening local time about the attacks, which killed at least 37 people and injured nearly 3,000 when pagers, walkie-talkies and other devices exploded simultaneously on Tuesday and Wednesday across Lebanon. The attacks were “a major assault on Lebanon, its security and sovereignty, a war crime — an act of war,” he added, and they dealt an “unprecedented blow” to Hezbollah and Lebanon.

An act of war? Certainly. In fact, it was a very specifically calibrated attack on Hezbollah, aiming at their operatives in as surgical a strike as could possibly be undertaken. While there have been reports of collateral damage, it's at a ratio unknown in counter-terror warfare, especially against a group that purposely hides itself among civilians to prevent direct attacks. 

However, Hezbollah -- and by extension Lebanon, which Hezbollah governs -- has conducted acts of war against northern Israel since shortly after Hamas launched its October 7 invasion and parade of ghastly atrocities. That too was an act of war, which Israel has prosecuted in Gaza because that's where Hamas is, and where it rules. Hezbollah's acts of war are hardly calibrated for legitimate military targets; they launch missiles indiscriminately against civilian populations, which Hamas had done routinely for 19 years. Hezbollah has killed a number of Israeli non-combatants in these attacks, including nearly a dozen children in a strike in the Golan region. 

Those are acts of war too, and those cross a much brighter "red line" than Pagercide did. If Nasrallah thinks anyone but his own extremists buy this argument, he's even more delusional than he is incompetent. This may be another indication of the former:

“They will face a severe reckoning and just retribution, whether they expect it or not,” Nasrallah said of Israel, adding that the nature, size and location of any retaliatory attack would be kept secret.

Do they have the capacity to retaliate? They certainly did at the start of the week. With thousands of their operatives now obviously sidelined if not permanently incapacitated, many if not most key parts of their command structure, that's in question now. What we do know is that Israel is capable of a massive escalation against Lebanon if Hezbollah attempts it, a capacity that the Israelis put on display in a warning not just to Nasrallah but the entire polity of Lebanon:

The Israeli military launched a new wave of attacks against Hezbollah targets in Lebanon on Thursday, after two days of device explosions that left the Middle East fearing all-out war.

The attack on southern Lebanon involved airstrikes and artillery but Israeli ground forces had not crossed the border, an Israeli official told NBC News.

The Israel Defense Forces announced the strikes — which it said were aimed at degrading the group’s “capabilities and infrastructure” —  just as the leader of the Iran-backed militant and political group began a much-anticipated response to the stunning attacks using walkie-talkies and pagers.

The IDF also sent fighter jets screaming across Beirut, breaking the sound barrier and dropping flares to remind the Lebanese people that Israel controls the skies:

Over Beirut now pic.twitter.com/phCGd1w6Oa

—  𝓂𝒶𝓇𝒾𝑜🇱🇧🇬🇧🇦🇪 (@MarioLeb79) September 19, 2024

مشاهد توثق إطلاق طائرات الاحتلال البالونات الحرارية على بيروت تزامناً مع كلمة الأمين العام لحزب الله. pic.twitter.com/GBYiPt7lwR

— فلسطين بوست (@PalpostN) September 19, 2024

Nasrallah may not be able to admit to being outmatched, but the people of Lebanon clearly recognize it. Most of them wanted Hezbollah dismantled years ago and a diplomatic solution found for their issues with Israel, but Hezbollah instead touched off a sorta-kinda civil war in 2008 to force the other factions to back down. That ironically came in part to protect its internal communications structure, part of which Israel obliterated with a couple of phone calls this week. (One interesting point: Nasrallah initiated the violence in May 2008 by saying that "all the red lines had been crossed," the same phrase he used today.)

If Nasrallah wants a war with Israel, he might find himself facing a reprise of the 2008 conflict first -- only this time with a decimated organization and an opposition desperate to avoid an Israeli invasion. The Jerusalem Post talked to a handful of Lebanese people, and they are not at all happy about Hezbollah or Nasrallah. Selection bias aside, these divisions have lasted a very long time in Lebanon, and they may be breaking open again soon. 

One of the four expresses pessimism about that prospect, however, noting that Hezbollah's propaganda has paralyzed Lebanon:

The moment I heard the news, I felt a surge of happiness, especially considering what they've done to Israel, Lebanon, and Syria, as well as their recent massacre in Majdel Shams. I was hopeful that this could be a turning point, possibly leading the Lebanese people to rise against the terrorist organization. However, I was disappointed by the attacks against me since yesterday, particularly from those who claim to oppose the terrorist group but seem to be siding with them. Instead of fear, people should be more optimistic and seize the opportunity, but unfortunately, that hasn’t been the case. All we're hearing from the Lebanese side are conspiracy theories about the U.S. and Israel.

At one point, I hoped we could approach things differently, instead of just waiting for tomorrow to hear Nasrallah threatening the Lebanese people again. While it's clear the attacks are directed solely at Hezbollah, it seems they’re still unable to grasp that reality. The last time we spoke, I was more optimistic, but now I feel more pessimistic, as no significant change has taken place. I long for the day we can witness true peace between Lebanon and Israel, but as a friend mentioned to me today, Lebanon has become like Nazi Germany. For people to change their mindset, Lebanon might have to be devastated before they realize peace is necessary. I wish I could remain optimistic, but I'm more of a realist.

Nasrallah has bet that he can keep this grip firmly as Israel steps up pressure. It may end up like his other bets in this war, though -- and he may not last long enough to deal with a full-scale war from the south.