Israel's allies reacted angrily to the targeted strikes on top leaders of Hamas, Hezbollah, and the IRGC. Joe Biden called them an obstacle to negotiations in Qatar, while other Western and Arab leaders condemned them as provocative. But the first reactions to threats of escalation from Tehran and Beirut testify to another possibility -- that the strikes may have finally sent a message about Israel's intent to go all out to secure its nation. 

The apparent retreat from full-scale retaliation from Tehran has been matched in Beirut, the New York Times reports this morning, and for the same reason. Hezbollah fears that an all-out war could lead to a civil war that would result in an ejection from power after over 40 years controlling Lebanon:

A day after the assassination of a senior commander of the Lebanese militant faction Hezbollah, the group vowed to retaliate against Israel. More than two weeks later, however, the response has not come as Hezbollah strikes a delicate balance between the vengeance it seeks and the risks of a backlash at home.

Lebanon is already deep in turmoil from a yearslong political and economic crisis, and its citizens are tired of strife. The country has careened from one crisis to the next since a 15-year civil war broke out in 1975. And if Hezbollah ends up in another punishing war with Israel now, the nation could well turn against it.

The Lebanese state is made up of a multitude of factions and sects and it has been controlled for years by an ineffectual caretaker government. Hezbollah, an Iran-backed Shiite Muslim group, is both part of that coalition government and considered the real power underpinning Lebanon.

As the dominant political and military force in the entire country, Hezbollah has everything to lose and knows it must tread carefully.

Well, its leaders certainly understand that now. The reason that it understands it is because the Israelis have made it clearer than they have in decades that they will no longer play along with low-scale war that breaks out into attacks like October 7 on a regular basis. They intend to make all of the proxies pay along with the proxies' patrons in Tehran for continued war. 

Until now, the Iranians and to a lesser extent Hezbollah have not had to pay any price for Hamas' 20-year war on Israel. They counted on that being relatively cost-free thanks to intervention from the US to restrain Israel from "escalation," at least how the Obama-Biden foreign-policy clique define it. This situation created a cost-free path to a long-term corrosive war against Israel that Iran clearly hoped would lead to its collapse, and in the shorter run a decisive split with the US and other Western allies.

Netanyahu decided to reset the incentives in this moment of crisis. He has made it clear that Israel will go to war against all of these countries if they continue to attack no matter which arm of the Iranian octopus does the dirty work. Both Hezbollah and the mullahs of Tehran sit atop very creaky regimes, held in place only by force rather than popular assent. Any significant war will completely undermine those regimes and might even collapse them. And since it's now clear that Netanyahu won't be dissuaded by US or EU calls for restraint, this strategy suddenly has existential costs.

That makes the hostage talks the best opportunity for the Iranian terror corporation to save face. Qatar gave Iran and Hezbollah some room today by publicly requesting a temporary pause on all offensive plans as the talks have shown some "promise":

Iran should hold off on its expected assault of Israel to avoid scuttling the progress coming out of the two-day cease-fire and hostage release negotiations taking place in Doha, Qatar’s prime minister urged Iran’s leaders in a phone call following the first day of talks, according to two diplomats familiar with the conversation.

The message from Qatar’s Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani underscores the deadly stakes looming over the discussions between representatives of the United States, Israel, Egypt and Qatar. Hamas officials, some of whom live in Doha, are not directly participating in the talks but mediators are keeping them updated on the status of the negotiations.

Mohammed “encouraged Iran to de-escalate and stressed the need for calm” during the call, one of the diplomats said. The second diplomat said he warned Iran to consider the grave consequences of waging an assault at the very moment there are signs of diplomatic progress.

The Israelis confirmed that some progress has been made:

Israeli negotiators and international mediators met in Qatar on Thursday for talks aimed at halting fighting in Gaza and securing the release of hostages held by the Hamas terror group, with a potential deal touted as the best hope of heading off an even larger regional conflict.

Officials from the United States, Qatar and Egypt met with the Israeli team, led by Mossad chief David Barnea, in Doha, to attempt to hammer out the details of a long-simmering phased deal to end some 10 months of fighting in Gaza sparked by the October 7 attacks, during which Hamas-led terrorists killed some 1,200 people and abducted 251, mostly civilians.

White House National Security spokesperson John Kirby called Thursday a “promising start,” and said negotiations were expected to run into Friday.

Don't expect Netanyahu to be a pushover here either, however. He also needs to reset the incentives around hostaging, a particular failure of Israel's that led to the wholesale abduction of 250 Israelis on October 7, mostly civilians. This has been another cost-free strategy employed by Hamas in particular but also Hezbollah in the past. This strategy works because Israel rewards it with hugely asymmetrical trades, which incentivizes it even more. 

As I have warned since the beginning, the only way to end this strategy is to strip it from any rewards and to make it too costly to continue. That's a hell of a lot easier to say than it is to do, of course, especially when families and communities demand that Israel act to save the lives of hostages. At some point, though, either Israel has to make it a worthless-or-worse tactic -- or Israelis will be eternal fodder for abductions and ransoms designed to destroy their nation.

That's why Netanyahu has balked at massive concessions and refuses to retreat from Gaza as a condition of a deal. He has to make the disincentives painful enough to force Hamas and others to give up this tactic while calculating trades that will get the live hostages freed. That's no easy task, but it might be getting less difficult if Iran and Hezbollah have decided that they don't want to keep this war going. 

Update: Negotiators believe they have the framework of a temporary pause and hostage release deal, but say it will take another week to firm up:

Mediators trying to end the Israel-Hamas war expressed hope for an imminent deal Friday, saying two days of talks had wrapped up in Qatar and they aimed to reconvene in Cairo next week to seal an agreement to stop the fighting. ...

The statement from the mediators — Qatar, the United States and Egypt — said U.S. officials had presented a proposal that would bridge the gaps remaining between both sides’ positions. Teams will continue working in the coming days on how to implement the specifics of the proposal, they said.

The statement from the mediators — Qatar, the United States and Egypt — said U.S. officials had presented a proposal that would bridge the gaps remaining between both sides’ positions. Teams will continue working in the coming days on how to implement the specifics of the proposal, they said.

Hamas sounded unenthusiastic about it, but that could mean it's in the ballpark. They sent out a rejection notice, but that's usually SOP and a negotiating tactic:

Hamas will not accept “new conditions” from Israel in a proposal put forward during talks in Doha aimed at sealing a ceasefire and hostage release in the Gaza war, officials tell AFP.

Israel’s “new” conditions include keeping troops inside Gaza along its border with Egypt, an informed source says, while Hamas demands “a complete ceasefire, a complete withdrawal from the Strip, a normal return of the displaced and a [hostage] deal” without restrictions, the source says.

Hamas has to calculate the new environment too, in which Israel has made clear its intent to fight a full-out war to put an end to Hamas. How long will Iran back Hamas' continued fight in Gaza under those conditions, and how useful would a deal be to the mullahs to put an end to an existential risk that Yahya Sinwar created? Expect more wheeling and dealing over the next week.

Netanyahu sounded more receptive:

“Israel’s fundamental principles are well known to the mediators and the US, and Israel hopes that their pressure will lead Hamas to accept the May 27 principles, so that the details of the agreement can be implemented,” the PMO’s statement adds, referring to the hostage deal proposal Israel made in late May.

Stay tuned ...