"We've kind of been here before," Harry Enten points out in this buzz-kill segment on CNN. Indeed we have, and CNN's polling analyst pours some cold water on the idea that the race has changed all that much. 

Consider this a bookend to my somewhat-sobering post yesterday about the perhaps-temporary boost in polling that Kamala Harris has received since her anointment as the replacement nominee for the Democrats. As I wrote yesterday, the bump has been real but not spectacular so far, and inasmuch as it changes the race from the rematch model, the rise in enthusiasm for the Democrat ticket was predictable.

Enten pushes back on two fronts. First off, the polling itself may be suspect, as pollsters routinely underestimate Trump's strength, especially in the Blue Wall states. Via Mediaite:

3 caution points for Democrats...

1. Trump wins if the difference between the polls at this point & the result matches what we saw in 2016 or 2020.
2. Trump's more popular now than at this pt in 2016 or 2020.
3. Dems don't say they're more likely to vote now than in May pic.twitter.com/E0zfPCyKS9

— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) August 13, 2024

“So August 13, how far where the polls off in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — and this is in 2016 and 2020 — Trump was [under]estimated both times around and by significant margins. Take a look here, in 2016 the average poll in those states they mentioned, those Great Lakes battleground states, Trump was underestimated by nine points on average at this point in 2016. How about 2020? It wasn’t a one off, look at this: He was underestimated by five points on average.”

“And of course Kamala Harris’s advantage in those New York Times-Siena College polls were four points in each of these key battleground states: Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin. The bottom line is this: If you have any idea- if you’re a Kamala Harris fan and you want to rip open the champagne bottle, pop that cork, do not do it,” he continued. “Donald Trump is very much in this race. If we have a polling shift like we’ve seen in prior years, from now until the final result, Donald Trump would actually win. I’m not saying that’s going to happen, but I am saying that he is very much in this ballgame based upon where he is right now, and compare that to where he was in prior years.”

That isn't the only problem with the numbers that Enten notices. Candidate preference is only one measure of a race; the other is enthusiasm. Enten sees a slight boost of enthusiasm among Democrats for jettisoning a clearly declining Joe Biden, but that was the enthusiasm post-debate. Enthusiasm for Biden in May in the NYT/Siena series actually was slightly higher, 62% to the current 61% for Vibing Kamala. 

"And look at Donald Trump," Enten says after running those numbers. "He's actually gone up since May." At that time, enthusiasm among Trump voters was at 58%, just slightly under Biden's number, although Trump led in voter preference at that time. It's now at 60%, a slight uptick in the NYT/Siena series that shows that the addition of Harris has not had much impact on those who favor Trump. 

"The bottom line here is that yes, there may be more enthusiasm for Kamala Harris," Enten concludes, "but we're not seeing that necessarily translate into the almost-certain vote." Plus, Enten points out, Trump is more popular in this series than he has ever been in an election-cycle August. NYT/Siena had him at 33% in 2016, and yet Trump went on to win all three Blue Wall states.  They had him at 41% in 2020 and he lost to Joe Biden in the middle of a chaos-driven election. Now he's at 44%, well above his winning level when the chaos will land on the incumbent administration, which Harris has to defend whether she likes it or not.

What about Harris' favorability? That has also improved sharply in national polling, at least, since voters began to suspect she'd replace Biden on the ticket. Harris hasn't been in positive territory on this RCP measure since July 2021 after a series of media fumbles exposed her as a lightweight, and she's still not out of negative territory -- not even after three weeks of media tongue-bathing over her "vibes":

But Trump's gap has been narrowing up too, and didn't have quite as far to go. The charts use different values on the Y-axis so the contrast is exaggerated, but Harris' favorables bottomed out this year close to 35%, where Trump's had been closer to 40% until recently. And her entry into the race hasn't detracted from his upward momentum:

Something to keep in mind, too: Harris' uptick is driven somewhat by outlier results from Morning Consult. They're the only pollster to put her in positive territory, although a Harvard-Harris poll did put her at even-up on favorability immediately after getting the nomination.

 In short, Enten makes a very good point -- if this is the peak for Harris' honeymoon. At the very least, the reports of the demise of Trump's standing in the race are greatly exaggerated ... so far. He has time to retool the messaging to hit Harris more effectively, and she'll have to expose herself at some point to the same kind of exposure that caused her favorables to crater in mid-2021. That's the shoe that's still left to drop for Democrats.