Get ready for lots of drama in Arizona! The presidential primary has come and gone, but the rest of the primary fights take place today. Republicans will contest against each other up and down the ballot, and so will Donald Trump and JD Vance ... by proxy.
As always, we'll have live results as they come in. And once again, we are partnering with our friends at Decision Desk HQ to provide real-time vote results after polls close, which will happen at various times tonight. The widgets below will list those times, and will automatically update. Please note: The House primaries are all available in a single widget; you will need to use the drop-down box to choose the race you want.
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Polls close at 10 ET, and then the absentee and early vote totals should emerge quickly. Election day votes will mostly come in soon afterward, but as much as 10% of the vote count may take until Thursday.
The big test tonight will be of Kari Lake's strength. Mike Lamb raised a respectable amount of cash ($1.7M) to challenge her for the GOP's Senate nomination, but Lake got $7.2 million and Trump's endorsement to boot. Lamb was sheriff of Pinal County for several years and could surprise people. There hasn't been much polling at all; the two Noble Predictive Insights polls put Lake up by double digits, but she was +25 in May and only +11 last week. She hasn't gotten to 50% in either one, so it's worth watching to see if Lamb has gotten some momentum in the closing days of the primary.
In the House races, the most interesting may be the Dem primary for AZ-01. That's nominally an R+2 district, but it's also entirely in Maricopa County and will be very competitive. It's a six-way race to see who will challenge incumbent Republican Dave Schweikart. Former Clinton speechwriter Andrei Cherny seems to be the favorite, but the money got spread around in the primary.
Republicans have competitive primaries in AZ-02, AZ-04, and AZ-08. The incumbent House Republican should win the AZ-02 primary, while AZ-04's primary looks like a real contest between Kelly Cooper and Zuhdi Jasser. Jasser got the slight edge on fundraising, but Cooper has the Trump endorsement. The winner faces incumbent Dem Rep. Greg Stanton in a D+2 district that could flip if a red wave emerges in November.
For a fun "GOP infighting" race, look no further than AZ-08, an R+10 district but steeped with intrigue for the moment. Incumbent Republican Debbie Lesko has announced her retirement, and Trent Franks has un-retired to seek his old seat again. He has to contend with Trump-endorsed Abraham Hamadeh and JD Vance-endorsed Blake Masters, who ran statewide two years ago. Masters has far more funds raised for this than anyone in the field, more than five times that of Hamadeh and more than ten times the amount Franks raised. Lots of eyeballs will be on this result, but the winner should be able to carry the district easily in November.
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