Man, the media wants to sell this narrative so bad it hurts. It hurts their credibility, it insults our intelligence, and is so demonstrably false that it beggars the imagination. 

Politico already tried playing defense for Kamala this morning. In the afternoon, they decided to play offense, in all definitions of the word:

The election has been totally upended. Here’s what the polls show. https://t.co/WRD6aube7j

(📷 Getty) pic.twitter.com/EnPpiw0iKb

— POLITICO (@politico) July 29, 2024

Vice President Kamala Harris’ elevation has jolted the race and blunted the momentum former President Donald Trump could have seen coming out of the Republican convention and the assassination attempt that preceded it. Though polling showed Trump building a lead over President Joe Biden following their debate last month, that advantage has mostly evaporated against Harris in the fresh round of surveys conducted since she became the all-but-certain Democratic nominee.

The new polling shows just how much the landscape has shifted since Biden dropped out last Sunday. For months, the contest appeared set, and Biden’s modest deficit going into the debate threatened to decline further. That’s now changed.

Trump still maintains a slim edge over Harris — but the race is now close, which was not the case for the Biden-vs.-Trump contest after the debate. Just this week, new polls from The New York Times/Siena College (Trump +1 over Harris), The Wall Street Journal (Trump +2) and CNN (Trump +3) all represent tightening from 6-point Trump leads in all three polls following the debate.

How does that translate to "totally upended"? Trump leads a new candidate -- so far only lightly tested and blessed with a fawning media rollout -- at about the same level he led Biden before the debate. And that's just with cherry picking the friendlier polls over the past week too, as we'll see in a minute. 

At best, one can argue that Harris' anointment has returned the presidential contest to the status quo ante prior to the debate. But Trump led then too, mainly on the basis of the disfavor the electorate has for Biden and Harris and their term in office. Given that the status quo ante before post-debate polling gave the Republican candidate the first aggregate polling lead in July since 2000, the results described by Politico hardly qualify as "totally upended." 

Besides, the broader poll response has been almost negligible, as today's updated graph from RCP demonstrates:

Harris polls slightly better than Biden, but Trump has also continued to score slightly better as well. The 1.7-point gap here is slightly better than Trump's 1.5-point gap on June 27, the day of the presidential debate. 

And perhaps more tellingly, RCP's Electoral College map based on state-by-state polling barely changed, too. The aggregate averages in key battleground states also still favor Trump and point to a 312-226 victory in November. The only shift in polls since the Harris anointment that put electors in the Democrat side appears to have been in New Hampshire. All three Blue Wall states still favor Trump. And while the map still shows Virginia in Harris' column, that's based on a single poll; Trump had led Biden in Virginia on aggregate polling in the Old Dominion.

Here are the current results from Trump-Harris head-to-head polling in the battleground states from RCP:

• Arizona: Trump +6.4, three polls (PPP found Trump up +8, in fact)
• Nevada: Trump +9. three polls
• Wisconsin: Trump +0.7, four polls
• Michigan: Trump +1.0, three polls
• Pennsylvania: Trump +3.0, six polls 
• Georgia: Trump +4.5, four polls

Fun fact: Kamala Harris doesn't lead in any battleground state polling above. Harris manages an occasional tie, but that's it. So no, the race has not been "totally upended," despite the media's attempt to sell it as such. Politico wasn't even the most shameless about pushing this absurd narrative. That honor goes to New York Magazine:

New York Magazine has released its latest cover. Your thoughts? pic.twitter.com/nghQok1DTq

— Daily Caller (@DailyCaller) July 29, 2024

They are trying really, really hard to make their wishcasting a reality. But thus far, that's all it is, and when Harris has to start going public with policy statements, it's not likely to get any better. More on that later, certainly, but first see if you can figure out what Harris actually said about immigration policy this weekend in this clip:

Don't listen to what she said, read it, and then let me know your takeaway.

"I am meeting with a lot of folks. And the work that we have begun is the work that is going to be ongoing. There is no question, and I said this from the beginning, that our approach to this issue has… https://t.co/DN7F5NzJJx

— Libby Emmons (@libbyemmons) July 28, 2024

"I am meeting with a lot of folks. And the work that we have begun is the work that is going to be ongoing. There is no question, and I said this from the beginning, that our approach to this issue has to be with a commitment to a long term investment and it has to be a commitment to consistency, the United States has to be consistent. There were times when were more engaged and we saw good results, less engaged, and we can see where the work and the partnerships then deteriorate. So I am committed to ensuring that we engage in an active way on the root causes, on addressing the cause and effect, and also being partners in the western hemisphere, understanding that we have a responsibility and if we ignore that responsibility it will visit itself upon us in a very domestic way."

Harris is bad at this. And the media can only hide that for so long.