As Israel's political world waits to see the outcome of one ultimatum, their enemy faces another -- reportedly. With Israel offering grudging support for an operational pause to swap hostages for prisoners based on the latest US formula, Hamas has taken a week or so to offer a firm response. Yesterday, as John noted, Yahya Sinwar appeared to signal rejection over a refusal by Israel to end the war first and leave Hamas in control of Gaza.

Today, Qatar decided to up the stakes by issuing an ultimatum of its own. Well, not entirely of its own:

Qatar has given Hamas an ultimatum to accept the ceasefire deal proposed by the US and Israel or face expulsion from Doha, according to a report by CNN. ...

The US has for months been pressuring Qatar to announce that it will expel Hamas if they don't accept the ceasefire deal.

According to CNN, this threat has been issued, with Qatar making clear to Hamas that failure to achieve a ceasefire would lead to their expulsion from Qatar.

Oddly, that report doesn't appear on CNN's website, at least not yet. However, that threat has been in the background for months, even if the US at times seemed to forget about its potency. With the Mossad ready to punish Hamas' billionaire leadership if they step foot out of Qatar, this ultimatum has teeth ... assuming the Qataris aren't just bluffing.

Can Ismail Haniyeh afford to defy it and find out? The bigger question is whether Haniyeh can accept a deal. He might be inclined to do so and buy some time for Hamas to regroup in Gaza for the next phase of fighting, but it's far from clear whether he can order Sinwar to obey. In fact, with Israel cutting off the tunnels and other lines of communication in the Philadelphi Corridor, Haniyeh may not even have much ability to coordinate with Sinwar at all. 

That may be why Haniyeh insisted yesterday that Hamas would only release hostages based on a complete halt of fighting and a full IDF withdrawal from Gaza. There may be no way to coordinate with Sinwar without it after the capture of the corridor and the tunnels into Egypt. That demand, which has blocked negotiations for months, got quickly rebutted by defense minister Yoav Gallant, who suddenly seems back on the same page with fellow Likud leader Benjamin Netanyahu:

“The strikes and the plumes of smoke where the Israel Defense Forces attacks are clearly visible to the eye, both in the Gaza Strip and in the north,” Gallant said aboard an F-15 jet of the Israeli Air Force’s 133rd Squadron.

“We are in a process where we will continue to wear down the enemy. Any negotiations with the Hamas terror organization will only be conducted under fire,” he asserted.

That sets up Qatar to enforce its ultimatum. Will they follow through and kick out Haniyeh and the rest of Hamas' wealthy elites? And if so, who will take them in? Most likely they would flee to Ankara, and hope they get there before the Mossad finds them. The Israelis allowed Hamas leadership to use Qatar as a sanctuary, though, and it's not at all clear that they will respect Turkey as such. 

But Qatar may not play this card immediately, because another ultimatum expiration comes tomorrow. Benny Gantz had threatened to leave the unity government if Netanyahu didn't come up with a post-war plan that satisfied him -- even though Gantz himself hasn't presented one publicly, either. There's a reason for that; there isn't an end state possible with Hamas still around. Any attempt to prop up a native Gazan government without Hamas would result in either a Hamas coup or Hamas co-opting it.  Gantz isn't proposing one because there's nothing to propose until Hamas is destroyed. 

The ultimatum seemed to damage Gantz and his National Unity party in recent polling, but that doesn't mean Gantz will back down. He'll have to decide soon because Netanyahu will call his bluff, according to a CIA analysis:

A CIA assessment circulated among US officials this week concluded that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu likely judges he can get away without defining a post-war plan — even as the Biden administration has launched a full-court press to pressure him to bring an end to the conflict in Gaza.

Netanyahu “probably believes he can maintain support from his security chiefs and prevent defections” from the right wing of his coalition by discussing the future of Gaza in “vague terms,” the June 3 report, reviewed by CNN, reads. ... 

The assessment highlights how the Israeli leader is defying pressure from members of his own government and the Biden administration to define an “end state” for Gaza and warns what Netanyahu has said publicly is likely true: that he will only engage seriously on post-war issues after meeting “what he sees as key security benchmarks, which may take months.”

According to the assessment, those benchmarks include completing “major military operations” — something analysts have said is deliberately vague — as well as eliminating Hamas military commander Mohammed Deif.

Will Gantz end the unity government and go back into opposition? Apparently Netanyahu hasn't bothered to negotiate with Gantz after the stunt:

War Cabinet Minister Benny Gantz is set to announce the withdrawal of his National Unity party from the government by Saturday night, fulfilling an ultimatum he set to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu last month demanding a commitment to an agreed-upon vision for the Gaza conflict that would include stipulating who might rule the territory in a scenario in which Hamas has been defeated.

According to Hebrew media reports, there are no ongoing negotiations or efforts by coalition parties to bridge the gaps with Gantz or ensure that he remains in the coalition after the June 8 deadline, and barring any last-minute surprises, he will honor the ultimatum made three weeks ago, as the government has not accepted or even seriously discussed the demands he made.

According to reports from Kan, the Biden team has pressured Gantz to delay his move in order to keep pressure on Netanyahu to remain attached to the latest proposal to Hamas. There is considerable irony in this, as Gantz' ultimatum resulted from intervention by Biden's team to put that pressure on Netanyahu. Hostage families are exerting public pressure on Gantz to stay for the same reasons:

On Thursday, Einav Zanguaker, whose son Matan is held hostage in Gaza, also appealed to Gantz to remain in the government to convince other coalition members to approve the proposed deal.

“Matan is not expected to be released in the first [phase of the] deal, but I need him at home. I can’t allow you to destroy it all. Now your responsibility should come into play, more than in all the eight months you have been there,” she said, adding that if he leaves, he would be allowing Netanyahu to “give up” on the hostages.

Meanwhile, an overwhelming majority of Israelis approve of the war strategies employed by the current government and want a deal to get the hostages home, while only 19% now think a Palestinian state will make Israel more secure. For Gantz, it's either walk and incur wrath from an Israeli electorate and the US, or renege and lose even more credibility -- a Hobson's choice of Gantz' own construction.

Nevertheless, Haniyeh and the rest of the Hamas leisure class in Doha must hope that Gantz will walk and effectively torpedo the proposal for them. If so, Qatar would be off the hook for enforcing its ultimatum too. But if Gantz sticks around and Hamas refuses to deal, the emirs of Doha may have no choice but to kick Haniyeh et al into the cold and paint a big target on their backs.