An exercise in bluff-calling, a real showdown … or a case of extended adolescence? Perhaps today’s vote in the House will combine elements of all three — if it happens at all. Kevin McCarthy told House Republicans this morning that he plans a vote in the first series this afternoon on Matt Gaetz’ motion to vacate, potentially reopening the leadership election nine months after Gaetz and his allies lost it:

🚨BREAKING … MCCARTHY SAID HE WILL BRING THE MOTION TO VACATE VOTE UP IN THE FIRST VOTE SERIES

— Jake Sherman (@JakeSherman) October 3, 2023

This seems like a totally great fight to have right in the middle of a presidential primary, and just at the same moment that Joe Biden and Democrats are plumbing the depths of approval ratings. Why not demonstrate that Republicans are unready to govern at this precise time, and are far more interested in personal grudges and re-litigating past leadership decisions?

Granted, Kevin McCarthy might not be the greatest House speaker of all time. But is he worse than Hakeem Jeffries, whom Gaetz essentially put in charge with this motion to vacate? And who does Gaetz have in mind to replace McCarthy if he succeeds in removing the current speaker? Gaetz wouldn’t say when asked by the House Republican conference this morning or last night:

.@RepDLamborn demanded Gaetz to tell them his plan for who the next speaker is. Gaetz said House should have an election

— John Bresnahan (@bresreports) October 3, 2023

1) Gaetz on trying to oust McCarthy: I think very highly of Steve Scalise. I would vote for Steve Scalise. I would probably vote for at least 100 GOPers..& maybe 100 other Americans..who wouldn't necessarily need to be a member of the body to be considered for the Speakership

— Chad Pergram (@ChadPergram) October 3, 2023

That’s the same argument made in January, too, when they did have an election … and Gaetz lost. At that time, Andy Biggs was the most prominent contender in the Speaker election, but Biggs didn’t win more than a handful of votes. Gaetz did win a concession from McCarthy to allow a one-person threshold for a motion to vacate, and that’s the concession that McCarthy must be regretting at the moment.  And if Democrats have to settle the issue, that will be a concession they will demand McCarthy reverse, so that they don’t have to keep playing this game for the next fourteen months.

Gaetz has made it clear that he wants to play this game for as long as possible:

7) But if the House fails to set Gaetz’s motion aside, that likely prompts a new vote for Speaker. 

McCarthy loyalists are now closing ranks around the Speaker. 

Gaetz says he will try again and again if he is not successful this week.

— Chad Pergram (@ChadPergram) October 3, 2023

What’s the popular definition of insanity again? Rep. Carlos Gimenez has the answer:

CARLOS GIMENEZ in the meeting: IF this goes through — MTV — who would support Kevin.

Most of the room raised their hand.

"There's your answer matt," Gimenez said

— Jake Sherman (@JakeSherman) October 3, 2023

Well, this will be a spectacular use of Congress’ time, no? And not just today, but until Gaetz either gets his way or his tantrum exhausts itself. It’s good to see the House focusing on Gaetz’ personal grudges rather than the business for which voters sent them to DC in the first place, especially for the most basic of congressional tasks — the budget.

All of this results from the CR fight over the past week. Gaetz and the House Freedom Caucus wanted a shutdown to increase their leverage on appropriations; instead, McCarthy offered a CR with actual spending cuts of around 8%. Gaetz and his allies torpedoed that in a floor vote, so McCarthy opted to float a clean CR for 45 days to complete work on the appropriations bill — since that was the best deal he could get with both House Democrats and Senate Republicans, who knew how a shutdown would play politically for the GOP.

As Jim Jordan pointed out in the conference, they didn’t leave McCarthy any options:

JORDAN in House Republican Conference meeting:

What was he supposed to do on the CR?

Worst option was what the Senate was doing and we didn't do that.

— Jake Sherman (@JakeSherman) October 3, 2023

And even occasional McCarthy critic Thomas Massie is shaking his head:

MASSIE, historically a critic of the leadership, said McCarthy has presided over the most transparent and well run rules process he’s seen. He said boehner and Ryan didn’t adhere to regular order

— Jake Sherman (@JakeSherman) October 3, 2023

So what happens now? The afternoon session opens at 1 pm ET, but it will take a bit of time to get to the motion to vacate. In fact, the first order of business will likely be a motion to table, which will set up a test vote on the MTV. If a majority votes to table the MTV, then it’s dead, at least until Gaetz makes a new motion. That will give us a look at whatever strategy House Democrats have in mind. They can’t elect a Democrat as Speaker as it takes a majority of the seats, not just a plurality, but they can let McCarthy and the House GOP joust for as long as possible to extend the impression of a circular firing squad rather than a governing majority.

If Hakeem Jeffries does decide to intervene, it won’t be without something in return. That wouldn’t likely be a specific policy concession, but more likely procedural concessions. He’d want to increase committee seats for Dems, but perhaps more valuable would be to make the discharge-petition process more robust, so that bills with clear majority support can get a floor vote regardless of what GOP leadership thinks of it. Jeffries would probably insist on revisiting the threshold needed for an MTV to avoid this kind of nonsense in the future — maybe back up to 50 members again.

McCarthy says he won’t negotiate with Democrats to defeat the MTV, but also insisted that he would run again if the MTV passes. Needless to say, Gaetz and his allies won’t do any better this time around than the last, especially when resentment over this stunt boils over later today. That will leave House Republicans in the same position as in January — voting over and over again to determine what should have been settled in conference last November, all because Gaetz et al don’t want to accept losing elections.

That’s what Jake Sherman sees, too:

there are a few scenarios here, via me and @bresreports

1) McCarthy wins. Seems unlikely right now.
2) McCarthy loses on the floor. But tries to grind it out with several more votes — a repeat of Jan.
3) McCarthy loses and leaves. Scramble for leadership. Scalise, Emmer,…

— Jake Sherman (@JakeSherman) October 3, 2023

But #YOLO, or something. Even if the House ends up with a new Republican Speaker, it doesn’t change the fact that they only have a five-seat House majority, and that Democrats control both the Senate and the White House. The next Speaker will have the same obstacles this one does, and nothing that will take place will change that reality — except to make the next Speaker look even weaker and in need of constant rescue. What a great use of everyone’s time!

Update: The message from House Democrats to Kevin McCarthy is …

House Democratic centrists hold the key to bailing out Kevin McCarthy. Yet he’s given them no incentive to salvage his besieged speakership, according to a half dozen centrists who spoke to POLITICO on Tuesday.

Most House Democrats are skeptical of the idea that they might save McCarthy from the right-wing rebellion that’s flared into a Tuesday ouster vote. Distrust of the GOP speaker runs deep in the caucus, over everything from McCarthy’s push to impeach President Joe Biden to his courtship of Donald Trump after the violent Capitol riot.

Jeffries is still playing his cards close to the vest, though:

What’s more, centrist Democrats are loyal to Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, who spoke with McCarthy on Monday night as the speaker ejection vote drew closer. The New York Democrat has urged his caucus to keep their McCarthy plans under wraps ahead of Tuesday afternoon’s vote; the Democratic leadership team reached out to some centrists on Monday to make that request, according to two people familiar with the discussions.

They may not mind a little wind-twisting for McCarthy, or whomever ends up with the job.

Update: This might be a fight worth having if there were anything substantial to it. Gaetz and his allies are arguing that McCarthy isn’t fighting for real debt and deficit reductions, but the first CR that McCarthy offered cut discretionary spending by 8%, and would have given Republicans some leverage in the Senate. Gaetz et al shot that down, but even more, they’re refusing to discuss the true drivers of debt and deficits — entitlement spending. The populists don’t want to bring up Medicare or Social Security reforms, mainly for electoral reasons. It’s hard to take them seriously on discretionary spending as a consequence, and especially difficult to take their anger over a CR seriously when that was also driven by electoral concerns.

Update: If Gaetz wants war, it looks like he has one:

Fury in GOP at Gaetz:

Van Orden: "The only word I can describe for that is hes either a fool or a liar.
Houchin: "I think Matt Gaetz is a chaos agent."
Molinaro: "I don't have tolerance for some pseudo psycho political fetish."
And fears that this could cost them majority pic.twitter.com/gWIlRqdSj2

— Manu Raju (@mkraju) October 3, 2023

This is gonna work out great for Republicans in 2024 … somehow … using the Underpants Gnome process.