Surprise! Well … kinda, anyway. Donald Trump already faces an indictment from special counsel Jack Smith over obstruction and mishandling of classified material in federal court, but that wasn’t Smith’s initial focus. At the time when the dispute over the records erupted, Smith already had been tasked with investigating the January 6 riot at the Capitol as a potential criminal conspiracy.

According to Trump, that shoe has finally dropped — or will shortly:

Note that literally none of this statement, other than the target notice and grand-jury summons, has to do with January 6th. That’s likely by design; Trump has gotten himself into trouble talking publicly about his current criminal indictment, and may have learned a lesson from the fallout of the Bret Baier interview.

Trump added more thoughts after this, again none of which pertains to the J6 probe directly either — except in one part:

The only relevant part of this portion relates to his “right to protest an Election I am fully convinced was Rigged and Stolen,” and even that’s not relevant to the riot — unless he wants to claim the riot itself as part of his own protest. One assumes that Jack Smith wants to connect those dots explicitly, but he’d almost certainly welcome any assistance Trump wants to provide, either at the grand jury or in public.

No one disputes Trump’s right to protest an election, both by challenging the results and holding demonstrations. Had the January 6th event contained itself to the White House, it wouldn’t even be a footnote in history. If all Trump did was ask them to protest at the Capitol, that won’t be an issue either. This isn’t about a right to protest, but how a demonstration called by Trump on one end of Pennsylvania Avenue turned into a riot on the other end of the street, with the alleged goal of disrupting the lawful transfer of power after an election. All of the other insults that Trump cites may or may not be legitimate grievances, but they are non-sequiturs to this issue as well as others in the “stop the steal” project that Smith is investigating.

That is probably an area of even greater potential liability for Trump than the riot. Trump had means to challenge the election in courts, but lost those arguments both on process and on the merits (especially in Nevada and Michigan, but also in Pennsylvania and Georgia). He had the right to demonstrate over his displeasure with those outcomes. If that’s all Trump did, then he should have no trouble avoiding an indictment — or if Smith does indict him, no trouble parrying that in court.

Since we haven’t seen any indictment, we have no specifics on what allegations Smith may bring — or even a certainty of an indictment. If Trump doesn’t get indicted, he still has the other criminal case in federal court, plus another potential indictment in Georgia’s Fulton County over “stop the steal” efforts specific in that state. But if Smith announces indictments that don’t include Trump in the J6 probe, though, expect him to declare that as a victory and vindication.

If Trump does get indicted on charges relating to J6 and/or “stop the steal,” how does that change the race? He might get a small rally effect in polling, although Trump notably didn’t get one from the Smith indictment last month. However, it’s not likely to erode his position much either, at least in the short run. The impact would almost certainly relate to what charges get brought and what underlying evidence is made public in support of them.

This case could be more of an existential issue for Trump’s political career, at least potentially. Voters, especially Trump supporters, see the dispute over the records Trump kept as a process dispute. If there is significant evidence of an effort by Trump to seize power through illegal means, that will matter more to voters than a dispute over presidential records, and maybe even to some of Trump’s core base. At the very least, it might have some of them reconsidering whether to choose a different direction for the party in this cycle just to avoid the trainwreck to come.

We won’t really know these answers until the last shoe drops. But at least we know it’s almost certainly falling off the foot now.

Also, the latest episode of The Ed Morrissey Show podcast is now up! Today’s show features:

• Andrew Malcolm and I discuss the death penalty, the presidential election, and how Americans largely avoid engaging in either debate in the serious manner required.
• Speaking of debates … where is Donald Trump?
• Plus, get the jokes of the week!

The Ed Morrissey Show is now a fully downloadable and streamable show at  Spotify, Apple Podcasts, the TEMS Podcast YouTube channel, and on Rumble and our own in-house portal at the #TEMS page!