Has the LGBTQ+ et al movement hit a ceiling — and has it sowed the seeds of its decline? For the first time since Gallup began polling on the question of same-sex relationships, American public approval of their morality suffered a statistically significant decline, falling seven points to its lowest level in four years. And while that decline has a strong partisan flavor, it’s also falling among its traditional allies.

First, the overall results show a sharp drop in support in the overall population:

Americans’ views about the morality of a number of behaviors and practices are largely stable compared with a year ago. However, significantly fewer say same-sex relations are morally acceptable, and more say the death penalty is. …

Last year, a record-high 71% of U.S. adults said gay or lesbian relations are morally acceptable. The figure has fallen back this year to 64%, returning to a level last seen in 2019. Still, Americans are far more likely to consider same-sex relations as morally acceptable than in the past, including 38% in 2002 and 54% in 2012. The figure has been 60% or higher since 2015.

Disapproval rose even more, going from 25% to 33%, the highest level since 2019 as well. (The margin of error for this survey overall is ± 4%.) The news is even more interesting when broken down by partisan identification. The biggest drop comes from Republicans, but don’t miss that drop on the blue line:

Support for same-sex relations dropped 15 points in a year among Republican-identifying respondents, back to a level last seen in 2014. However, approval among Democrats slipped as well; it fell six points from 85% in last year’s poll to 79% this year, a three-year low. That could fall within the MoE of that demographic, but it would be pushing the outer boundary.

What makes this remarkable is the degree of change on this one issue. The -7 point change in approval is the most dramatic change in the entire series. The only other issue with a change outside the MoE is a five-point gain in moral approval of the death penalty. The other changes are mostly although not entirely to a more conservative position on morality. One notable exception is also on sexual mores, with affairs between married people gaining three points in moral approval — although it’s a gain from 9% approval to 12%, which seems comforting. Moral approval for sex outside of marriage fell by four points from 76% to 72%, and moral approval of sex between teenagers declined three points to 43%.

So, it seems unlikely that the explanation for this is a sudden oversample of cultural conservatives. For one thing, we’re not seeing dramatic shifts on other questions; the movement also shows up among self-identified Democrats; and finally, Gallup’s methodology is reliable enough for longitudinal surveys and results.

What is the explanation? That question drove chatter on social media all weekend long, with some on the Left claiming nothing had actually changed, and others on the Right claiming that Americans had gotten hoodwinked by the LGBTQ+ movement on their intentions, after having bought the “all we want is equal access” arguments of the past two decades. Ben Shapiro made that argument earlier this morning:

What happened? We noticed that the LGBTQ+ movement was lying about the agenda. It wasn't privacy. It wasn't legal ability to visit loved ones in the hospital. It was destruction and replacement of the core norm that represents the basis of all civilization.

— Ben Shapiro (@benshapiro) June 19, 2023

Until we see more polling on the topic, all we will have is speculation — but I suspect this comes closest to the truth and better explains the anecdotal secondary data better:

with that recent gallup poll coming out of 71% of americans still being in favor of same sex marriage. i feel more sure that it’s not “anti-lgbtqxyz+” backlash like the liberal media likes to claim but a backlash to TQ’s unreasonableness primarily

— liz (@allaboutwymin) June 18, 2023

That would fit the recent parental and consumer rebellions to corporate wokery, especially in the transgender movement. The attempts to shove “gender affirming care” on children with no scientific basis at all, the curricula to indoctrinate and recruit children into the trans and “non-binary” activist ranks, and the outright bigotry of groups like the Sisters of Perpetual Indulgence (along with their intentionally blasphemous public ridicule of Christians) has ignited a backlash in both cultural and political terms. The continued association and support from the LGB community for the TQ+ et al movement has eroded their own moral standing, along with their original claims of seeking only equal access and toleration.

The backlash has mainly focused on the attempts by radical transgender activists to target children. Since Gallup didn’t specifically ask about the morality of the transgender agenda, it’s not clear to what extent that’s impacting the moral approval rating for same-sex relationships. One thing seems clear, though: as long as the LGB stays married to TQ+, their goals and support will get directly impacted by the extremes of actions taken by their partners.