Perhaps, although Joe Manchin might still escape Justice. If West Virginia’s incumbent Senate Democrat plans to run for his current office next year, he will have to square off against the current Republican governor, Jim Justice, as has been widely expected.

Earlier today, Justice filed campaign paperwork to launch his Senate bid:

West Virginia Gov. Jim Justice filed paperwork for a Senate run on Thursday and is expected to make an official announcement Thursday evening. If he wins the nomination, he’d take on Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin in what will likely be one of the most hotly contested and closely watched Senate contests in the country.

Justice is a well-liked and wealthy coal magnate who is an ally to former President Donald Trump, and Republicans believe his campaign kickoff goes a long way toward retaking the Senate next year. Trump won the state by 39 percentage points in 2020, and the Mitch McConnell-aligned Senate Leadership Fund recently commissioned a poll showing Justice is the strongest candidate against Manchin.

Justice is set to make remarks this evening at The Greenbrier, his luxury resort in White Sulphur Springs, W.Va.

One presumes that the poll in question may have something to do with Justice’s decision to run. It might also have something to do with AG Patrick Morrisey’s decision to run for governor three weeks ago, which made Justice’s filing all but inevitable. It’s just one poll from February, of course, but the difference is significant:

Governor Justice is the only potential Republican nominee who currently has a lead over Senator Manchin on a general election ballot test. As you can see from the chart below, Governor Justice already captures a majority of the vote and has a +10 lead over Manchin, while the other two candidates both trail by double digits, with both of them allowing Manchin to capture a majority of the vote.

Governor Justice maintains a lead over Manchin in every media market across the state and captures fifty-eight percent (58%) of the vote among registered Independent voters, which is 18 points higher than any of the other potential Republican candidates. Justice also receives twenty six percent (26%) of the vote among registered Democrats, 10 points higher than any other potential Republican candidate tested in this survey.

Maybe Mooney will run for Morrisey’s current position as AG. He announced a Senate run last fall, but Justice’s entry into the race likely will have Mooney looking for other options for political office — especially with the NRCC  apparently poised to spend big on their new recruit to the race.

Make of this one poll what you will, but it does seem to indicate that Justice is the Senate GOP’s best bet. It’s a little tough to swallow that Morrisey would trail Manchin by ten points after coming within four points in 2018 against him, though. In fact, it’s tough to see Manchin even getting to his 2018 winning plurality of 49.6% against any of these three potential challengers, especially after his smelly deal with Chuck Schumer and Joe Biden on the so-called “Inflation Reduction Act.”

Why does this matter? Manchin might choose to escape Justice by running for governor again, his previous post before coming into the Senate in 2010. He had just won a second term in that position when he appointed himself to the seat vacated by Robert Byrd’s death. Manchin has expressed frustration with Senate processes and factionalism and hinted at times that he might want his old job back. That would end up pitting Morrisey against Manchin anyway, and if this poll is accurate, Manchin might end up a favorite to win it. But West Virginia is a lot more Republican than even thirteen years ago when Manchin traded seats, and even more over the last five years since Manchin barely survived a re-election fight in a blue wave election.

Of course, Manchin’s now flirting with running for the presidency. That might tell us how much confidence he has in that poll, too. He offered a very odd response this morning to the news of Justice’s entry. “Any race I enter”?

Interesting that Manchin responds to Jim Justice getting in by alluding to the possibility that Manchin might run for something else pic.twitter.com/ToAqFUz0KK

— Aaron Blake (@AaronBlake) April 27, 2023

At any rate, Justice has finally arrived in the Senate race, just in time for us to have all sorts of fun with his name. A Manchin demurral may soon come next, and it would almost have to come soon to give Democrats a chance to recruit a replacement. A Manchin pull-out may not seem like justice (get it??), but Republicans will take it nonetheless.

Speaking of confidence, my friend and colleague Katie Pavlich reached back nearly two months to find this statement from Justice. It would seem like hubris except for the fact that everyone knows this is true … Manchin included.

Gov. Jim Justice (R-WV) says he is "very seriously considering" running for the Senate seat held by Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) in 2024.

Fox's Brian Kilmeade: "Do you think you would win?"

Justice: "I know I'd win. That's all there is to it."

pic.twitter.com/xuH1fGmGrV

— TV News Now (@TVNewsNow) March 9, 2023

Also, the latest episode of The Ed Morrissey Show podcast is now up! Today’s show features:

• Could Joe Biden have delivered a worse campaign launch? AJ Kaufman joins me to discuss Biden’s demagoguery and his decision to get in this early. Was he afraid of a challenge?
• Randi Weingarten’s back and on the attack, AJ tells us, which is just a defense mechanism to deflect all of her toxic leadership during the pandemic and the damage it did to millions of children.
• AJ and I debate Fox’s firing of Tucker Carlson and especially whether his content was inappropriate for national discussion.

The Ed Morrissey Show is now a fully downloadable and streamable show at  Spotify, Apple Podcasts, the TEMS Podcast YouTube channel, and on Rumble and our own in-house portal at the #TEMS page!