In most presidential election cycles, especially for the party out of power, the challenge is in keeping up with the people getting into the race. For observers of the 2024 Republican nomination steeplechase, keeping track of who’s getting out may be more of a challenge. Yesterday, Mike Pompeo surprised everyone at the end of his book tour by demurring:

pic.twitter.com/0wVhCl66Vv

— Mike Pompeo (@mikepompeo) April 14, 2023

Frankly, I never understood how Pompeo would fit into the 2024 cycle if Trump ran anyway. If people want a return of the Trump administration, they’d vote for Trump — and if they didn’t, they wouldn’t vote for Trump or any of his officials either. They’d be looking for a fresh start. The same problem applies to Mike Pence and even to Nikki Haley to some extent. And even apart from that, Pompeo doesn’t bring any unique quality or philosophy to the race.

However, Glenn Youngkin would have had a much different potential in a 2024 run. He hasn’t worked in Washington; Youngkin had built wealth in the private sector before turning his attention to politics. He beat an entrenched Establishment figure, Clintonista Terry McAuliffe, and flipped blue Virginia red in 2021.  Youngkin fronted a legitimate grass-roots cultural movement in parental rights, too. Plus, since Virginia forbids its governors from running for consecutive terms, Youngkin would be free of any need to decide between re-election or leveraging his popularity for a presidential run.

Instead, the New York Times reports this morning, Youngkin’s taking a pass on 2024:

Gov. Glenn Youngkin, the Republican whose surprising election in a blue-trending state set off instant talk of a presidential run, has tapped the brakes on 2024, telling advisers and donors that his sole focus is on Virginia’s legislative elections in the fall.

That’s not exactly an outright refusal. It’s possible that Youngkin could get in after the November legislative elections this year, but it’s highly unlikely to work — unless the field is an absolute mess. A delayed entry could allow Youngkin to avoid all of the mudslinging (especially from Trump) and ride in as a white knight just before the actual primaries to seize the momentum.

That, however, would still require lots of campaign structure in the early states to organize for primaries and especially caucuses. If Youngkin waits until mid-November to staff up, he’s going to be too late.

Besides, it looks as though Youngkin’s demurral is on the level:

Tellingly, Mr. Youngkin’s two top political advisers, who guided his gubernatorial victory and were mapping out a 2024 strategy, both took jobs this month with a super PAC that supports the presidential candidacy of Mr. DeSantis.

Asked about his presidential decision timeline this week, Mr. Youngkin said, “Listen, I didn’t write a book, and I’m not in Iowa or New Hampshire or South Carolina.”

Pompeo did write a book and do a tour, and he’s not getting in either. Youngkin may just not be terribly interested in running for the top spot, especially with DeSantis essentially occupying Youngkin’s lane in more ways than one. The NYT notes that DeSantis has eclipsed Youngkin in the parental rights movement, but he’s also made it clear that his electoral strength is both more broad and less fluky than Youngkin’s. If Youngkin provides a Republican legislative landslide in the fall, that perception might change, but for now, Youngkin won one close race in a normally blue state. DeSantis took a purple swing state and turned it into a Field of Blood for Democrats in four short years.

There’s one other way in which DeSantis has eclipsed Youngkin in the not-Trump lane: the fire in the belly. DeSantis is building a reputation for pugilism in politics of the kind that inspires the base. Youngkin offered some of that quality on parental rights in 2021, but has kept his leadership more low-key in Virginia — and for good reason. It has made Youngkin more effective in a blue state in advancing his agenda and setting up the state’s 2023 midterms. What works for DeSantis in Florida would almost certainly not work for Youngkin in Virginia. However, the more nuanced strategy employed successfully by Youngkin makes him less of an appealing figure in a political environment where culture-war battles make the biggest impression.

This means, again, that DeSantis is certainly running for the nomination. That may sound like a Captain Obvious point, but there are still some who think DeSantis won’t jump into the 2024 nomination race against Trump. If DeSantis wasn’t serious, Youngkin’s advisers would have stuck around and prepped a Youngkin run at the nomination, full stop. And once DeSantis gets in, the race is likely going to develop into a two-man fight, especially with the massive war chests of DeSantis and Trump and the lack of such among the other candidates.

So is Youngkin done in politics? Don’t count him out just yet. At 56, Youngkin could position himself to pick up the pieces in the 2028 cycle if Republicans lose the 2024 election, having avoided the personal eviscerations this primary fight will produce. And there may be more immediate benefits of opting out of the internecine war, too. Youngkin would make a good running mate for either Trump or DeSantis as a popular governor of an elector-rich bluish-purple state in 2024, especially if Democrats get stuck with Biden on the ticket again. At the very least, by opting out of a dark-horse-at-best bid this cycle, Youngkin keeps all his other options open.