Why did Bowser, herself a progressive, veto it? The bill is the first major change to the criminal code in over 120 years, and swings heavily to the “decarceration” demands of the hard Left:

Critics are concerned about the impact of the bill’s reduction of maximum sentences, elimination of nearly all mandatory minimum sentences, and expansion of the right to jury trials to those accused of misdemeanors, according to Fox5. The bill also softens the penalties for carjackings and burglaries, Fox News noted in an earlier report. It is the first comprehensive revision of D.C.’s legal codes since Congress created them in 1901. …

The council’s decision comes as crime in D.C. has seen a 23% uptick, according to data from the Washington, D.C., Metropolitan Police. In 2023, D.C. has already seen a 100% increase in murders and a 200% increase in sex abuse, though violent crimes are overall down by 9%.

Now House Republicans plan to reverse it in a rare use of congressional authority over DC — and Democrat leadership may not be able to stop it, even in the Senate. And that means Biden may have to choose between DC autonomy and his attempts to distance himself from progressive “defund the police” efforts:

It all started when the House GOP took aim last week at a package of progressive criminal justice measures approved by the D.C. council in November. Thirty-one Democrats joined with Republicans to oppose the new D.C. bill. Now, Senate Republicans are poised to force a vote next month on sending that D.C. criminal justice rollback to Biden’s desk. And, in a twist, D.C. Mayor Muriel Bowser, a critic of her city council’s work, vetoed the bill last month and is not lobbying against efforts to overturn it. …

Biden has come out in opposition to the legislation but not made an explicit veto threat. Democratic leaders believe he is prepared to do so: “I’d assume, but I wouldn’t go any further,” said Senate Majority Whip Dick Durbin (D-Ill.), who chairs the Judiciary Committee.

The reversal of D.C.‘s crime law cannot be filibustered, and if 51 senators vote yes it would be the first time since 1991 that Congress has rolled back a statute in the capital city. It’s a stunning turnaround from last Congress, when 46 senators in the Democratic Caucus went on record to support making D.C. a state while the Democratic House passed its own statehood bill.

The plan appears locked in place with the newly announced support of Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY), which brings the entire Senate Republican caucus unanimously behind the measure. That still only brings 49 votes to the table, but there are a couple of twists on this. Assuming the House GOP can muster its majority to pass this out of their chamber, the Senate has to take it up without recourse to a filibuster, as Politico’s Burgess Everett points out. Therefore, Senate Republicans don’t need 11 Democrats to pass this — they only need two.

And Joe Manchin is already throat-clearing about how West Virginians feel about crime policies:

“In West Virginia, they want the tougher codes,” he said. “I would be open to seeing what they want to roll back, and make sure it’s common sense. If it’s reasonable and common sense, yeah.”

Manchin has reason to look for ways to stand out from the Senate Democrat caucus. He has to run for re-election next year (or perhaps more likely, a term as governor) in a state that is so red that not one single county voted for Joe Biden in 2020. Polling shows Manchin trailing in a Senate race by ten points against presumed GOP candidate Gov. Jim Justice, although he’s still running ahead of two other potential challengers, Rep. Alex Mooney and AG Patrick Morrisey (no relation).

That’s still only 50, and even with the filibuster out of order, you still need 51. But Manchin isn’t unique in that position, don’t forget. In 2024, Democrats have to defend 10 more seats than Republicans, likely with Biden and Kamala Harris at the top of the ticket, and a number of those seats are in otherwise solidly red states. Will Ohio’s Sherrod Brown vote to sustain the DC’s soft-on-crime law? Montana’s Jon Tester? How about Virginia’s Tim Kaine, whose state is turning purple again and where residents feel the impact of DC’s escalating crime rate? Even Nevada’s Jacky Rosen may need to worry about publicly overriding Mayor Bowser’s concerns.

And let’s not forget about Kyrsten Sinema and Angus King, the two kinda-sorta moderate independents that caucus with Democrats. Voters in Maine, and perhaps especially in Arizona, are not likely to be big fans of the “defund the police” policies pushed by progressives over the last three years. They’re certainly not fans of the outcomes of those policies either. And since both of those incumbents will also have to face voters in this cycle, they may also consider forcing the issue back onto Joe Biden.

Put all that together with the assault on House Democrat Angie Craig (MN) last week, and the environment for the votes in both chambers look ominous for Democrats. Craig herself seems oriented to vote to overturn the new DC law, based on her remarks this week:

“I got attacked by someone who the District of Columbia has not prosecuted fully over the course of almost a decade, over the course of 12 assaults before mine that morning”: @RepAngieCraig is calling for changes to prevent known criminals from targeting new victims. pic.twitter.com/Q391z6UBtA

— CBS Mornings (@CBSMornings) February 14, 2023

It’s one thing to stand pat on a status quo in the aftermath of that attack and hope voters forget. It’s quite another to vote for changes that make DC even less safe, not just for its residents but also for members of Congress too. This measure may end up being more bipartisan than even Republicans initially calculated.

That will leave Biden in a real jam. Biden has paid lip service to DC statehood, mainly as a cheap way to virtue-signal his progressive base. If he has to veto this bill, it will become an expensive virtue signal as the political blowback and law-enforcement costs both balloon (pun very much intended). If Biden doesn’t veto the bill, then it exposes him to all sorts of accusations of betrayal on the DC statehood issue, even while it bolsters his claims of needing more and better policing in America’s cities.

But on that score, Biden may be trapped by his last big speech. Remember this from the State of the Union?

And all of us — all of us — folks, it’s difficult, but it’s simple: All of us in the cha- — in this chamber, we need to rise to this moment. We can’t turn away. Let’s do what we know in our hearts that we need to do. Let’s come together to finish the job on police reform. Do something. Do something.

Congress is about to “do something” on police reform, all right. Will Biden “do something” to block it? If Congress does pass this bill, all of Biden’s choices will be bad — and Democrats will end up in a lose-lose scenario.

Addendum: The arguably best scenario for Republicans on this — politically speaking — would be a 50/50 tie in the Senate that forces Kamala Harris to cast the deciding vote. That will make Harris and Biden have to choose between a progressive mayor and an even more radical city council on crime just before a presidential cycle kicks into high gear. Stock up on popcorn, but I suspect Manchin isn’t the only 2024 class incumbent that will want to distance himself from the “defund” radicals.