Viktor Bout for Brittany Griner … and only Brittany Griner? The Biden administration cut that deal today, and the WNBA star will soon arrive back in the US while Joe Biden commuted the Russian arms dealer’s 25-year sentence.

But where does that leave the retired Marine to maybe be named later in this trade?

Brittney Griner, the WNBA star who was held for months in Russian prisons on drug charges, was released Thursday in a one-for-one prisoner swap for international arms dealer Viktor Bout, according to a U.S. official. The one-for-one exchange agreement negotiated with Moscow in recent weeks was given final approval by President Biden within just the last week, according to sources familiar with the deal. The swap took place on Thursday in the United Arab Emirates. …

To secure Griner’s release, the president ordered Bout to be freed and returned to Russia. Mr. Biden signed the commutation order cutting short Bout’s 25-year federal prison sentence.

That’s certainly good news — for the Griners, and for Joe Biden too. He’ll get some good PR out of his move to have Griner released from a ridiculously provocative prison sentence, especially from the sports/entertainment industry. We can expect plenty of laudatory profiles on Biden’s negotiations with Russia, his weighing of the risks involved, and likely no small amount of minimization regarding Bout.

Speaking of Bout, the man known as The Merchant of Death, it also remains to be seen just how active he’ll become again in the arms trade. Bout helped stoke conflicts around the world, from Afghanistan to Colombia, which is where he crossed the line with the US. Bout supplied arms to FARC at a time when they targeted Americans (among others), but Bout had been rumored to be dealing with the Taliban and al-Qaeda as well. It’s not difficult to imagine where Putin would like Bout to apply his talents now that he’s freed — the “annexed” areas of Ukraine — but we can probably bet that Bout will spread his wings a bit farther afield once staked and connected again. And that will likely put American lives at risk in places like Syria, Iraq, various African countries, and so on.

For the Russians, that’s one hell of a trade. And it’s a trade that still leaves Paul Whelan out in the cold, as CBS notes [see update below]:

Notably, the Griner-for-Bout exchange leaves retired U.S. Marine Paul Whelan imprisoned in Russia. Whelan has been in Russian custody for nearly four years. He was convicted on espionage charges that the U.S. has called false.

“Notably,” indeed. Griner has been detained in Russia for ten months; Whelan’s been there for four years. CBS reports that Biden ended up caving to Russian demands for only a one-for-one swap, and plenty of questions should be raised as to why Griner rather than Whelan got chosen as the one:

After five months of stalled diplomacy and various permutations of potential swap arrangements — including a previously unreported offer by the U.S. this past summer to send two prisoners back to Russia for the two Americans — sources say the one-for-one exchange came together over the last two weeks.

It remains unclear what led to the breakthrough, but the Biden administration made at least one concession by agreeing to reduce the swap to one American for one Russian.

This makes little sense, other than in PR terms. The US insists that Whelan wasn’t a spy, but even if he wasn’t an intel asset, he’s still a former Marine. That should count for something in terms of priority along with the length of his incarceration in Russia. If this is the only deal on the table, then this looks like a poor choice.

But is this the only deal on the table? Perhaps another deal is being worked in parallel to get Whelan out. CBS hints at a second Russian asset that Vladimir Putin might want to see back at home, perhaps one with a lower profile than Bout but still important. We’ll see soon enough, one assumes, but if Whelan’s still in Russia after the new year, someone at the White House had better explain their priorities in this deal.

Update: Biden says his “thoughts and prayers” are with Whelan’s family, but his case wasn’t as urgent as Griner’s, or something:

"We've not forgotten about Paul Whelan," @POTUS says of US Marine veteran who remains in Russia. He argues this was not a "choice" between Americans as he says Russia is treating Whelan differently from #BrittneyGriner. Biden says he's sending thoughts & prayers to his family.

— Margaret Brennan (@margbrennan) December 8, 2022

Of course it was a choice between Americans. In fact, Biden made it clear that he did choose, on the basis of different circumstances for the two. If he can back that up, then perhaps we’ll see why a former Marine got less preferential treatment than a sports star from our government. Hopefully, though, a deal to get Whelan out will be shortly forthcoming and this will be a misdemeanor for Biden at worst.

Question, though: when was the last time Biden even addressed the Whelan situation publicly? Has he ever addressed it publicly? Because it seems as though this White House has forgotten Whelan at times. And for that matter, Marc Fogel.

Update: Kudos to the Whelan family for stepping up here:

NEW from the Whelan family: "There is no greater success than for a wrongful detainee to be freed & for them to go home. The Biden Admin made the right decision to bring Ms. Griner home, & to make the deal that was possible, rather than waiting for one that wasn't going to..”

— Nick Kalman (@NickKalmanFN) December 8, 2022

That’s a very brave and incredibly powerful statement to make at this juncture for the Whelans. If it wasn’t possible to deal Whelan for Bout, though, it must be crushing for them to realize that there may not be a deal possible for Paul’s release. And yet, they’re celebrating Griner’s freedom today and backstopping the decision. If it’s good enough for them, it’s good enough for me.

Update: Maybe not all of the Whelans are on board:

David Whelan, brother of imprisoned Paul Whelan: "How do you continue to survive,day after day,when you know that your government has failed twice to free you from a foreign prison? I can't imagine he retains any hope that a government will negotiate his freedom at this point…" https://t.co/Skq4hwHmnQ

— Margaret Brennan (@margbrennan) December 8, 2022

I’m wondering that myself. It certainly looks as though he wasn’t as high a priority as the high-profile Griner. However, I also hope that parallel negotiations may still be underway for both Whelan and Marc Fogel.

Update: Even at MSNBC, questions about this are being raised:

I will be the skunk in the room. This is not a diplomatic triumph by the administration. This was a very difficult decision, and we paid a very high price. It is a sobering day. Another American is still left behind. There should be questions on the one for one swap. https://t.co/385QilQEJU

— Marc Polymeropoulos (@Mpolymer) December 8, 2022