“Nancy Pelosi, Speaker Emeritus?” asks Puck. According to reporter Tara Palmieri, that’s precisely what Pelosi will announce when she speaks about her post-midterm plans. Rather than retire to a diplomatic assignment in Italy, Pelosi will instead retire from caucus leadership — but remain in the House:

Sometime around noon, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi will walk out onto the House floor to take her final bow after 19 years as head of the Democratic caucus with a speech about passing the torch from one generation to the next, I’m told. But instead of riding high into retirement, as has long been assumed, or becoming ambassador to Italy—a diplomatic posting the White House has been holding open for her—Pelosi will announce that she plans to stay in Congress as a backbencher, roaming the halls in a sort of emeritus role and helping to guide Democrats through their turn in the minority.

The decision to step down from leadership was reached over the weekend, as I reported on Monday, after Pelosi crafted a retirement speech with the help of the celebrity historian and presidential biographer Jon Meacham, a favorite of the Democratic elite, including Joe Biden, for exactly these types of moments. I was told there were multiple drafts of the speech, signifying Pelosi’s indecision and the fluidity of the midterm election results.

But the decision to stay on as a backbencher was only reached days ago.

The New York Times’ Annie Karni raised this as a possibility a couple of days ago. Pelosi herself may have foreshadowed it on Sunday:

Now the question of will she stay or will she go has given way to a potential third option that some people close to Ms. Pelosi, 82, argue is a serious possibility for her: stepping down from leadership but remaining in Congress in a sort of emeritus role that would allow her to offer counsel to her colleagues and support the agenda of President Biden, 79, whom she has urged to run for re-election in 2024.

Such an arrangement would allow Ms. Pelosi to manage her own exit from the political scene while passing the torch to a new generation of leaders that many Democrats have argued for years was long overdue to take over from the three octogenarians currently running the House. She has hinted at just such a possibility.

“There are all kinds of ways to exert influence,” Ms. Pelosi told CNN’s Dana Bash on Sunday. “Speaker has awesome power, but I will always have influence.”

Hmmm. Traditionally, defeated Speakers usually leave Congress, but Pelosi herself had already been an exception to that rule. She lost the gavel in the 2010 midterms, and failed to regain it in three subsequent national elections, including the one in which Barack Obama narrowly won re-election to the presidency. She regained it in the 2018 midterms, but then managed to be the first Speaker in long memory to lose seats while her party elected a new president. As Speaker, Pelosi will go out with a won-loss record in elections of 4-6.

That’s not exactly a great record for an “emeritus” standing. However, Pelosi raises tons of money for other House Democrats, and if she assumes that role, she likely will continue to control campaign cash, or at least influence its direction. That is certainly a good part of what Pelosi meant in her response to Dana Bash. A diplomatic post in Rome might be a great lark, but it will end Pelosi’s ability to control outcomes in the House. Even a quiet retirement in San Francisco might have given her more influence than serving as Ambassador Pelosi.

That might suit Pelosi, but it probably won’t make Hakeem Jeffries happy. Jeffries positioned himself well with his caucus to succeed Pelosi in the event of her departure, and he no doubt will get chosen in House Democrats’ upcoming caucus elections as the Minority Leader for the next session. However, Pelosi’s continued presence will loom over his leadership with Pelosi already pledging to wield her “influence” and remaining in Congress. If and when when Jeffries demonstrates any degree of independence from the previous caucus regime, expect that to create rifts within House Democrats’ ranks.

No one should know the risks of “emeritus” standing better than Pelosi. Catholics have gotten a good look at them at the Vatican with the nearly unprecedented retirement of Benedict XVI and the tensions it created for Pope Francis as his successor.

And it might just help Kevin McCarthy firm up his caucus support for Speaker, too. If Pelosi is staying in the House, she’s doing so to continue her political infighting under the guise of backbencher status. McCarthy can ask other Republicans if they really want to fight each other and allow Pelosi to control the chamber by proxy, or to unite against her once and for all to shut her down.

We’ll see soon enough whether Palmieri’s sources got this right. Pelosi plans to speak at noon today to make her plans clear. Stay tuned.

Addendum: CNN reports that Jeffries is not commenting on Pelosi’s plans. Interesting.

Seth Moulton on Pelosi: "She's a historic speaker who has accomplished an incredible amount. But I also think there are a lot of Democrats ready for a new chapter."
Jerry Nadler told me he's urging Pelosi to stay
Jeffries declines to comment
Members are in the dark: pic.twitter.com/XNEdY9Wz1k

— Manu Raju (@mkraju) November 17, 2022

Update: Pelosi follows through on the plan that Palmieri’s sources previewed. It took about ten minutes into her one-minute speech to find that out, and as I update this, Pelosi is still speaking. Everyone knows, though, that Pelosi will be a Backbencher in Name Only.

Update: Steny Hoyer will step out of leadership too, but remain in his House seat. They’re hoping to pressure Republicans ahead of the Speaker vote:

Pelosi and Hoyer will be rank and file members

Why? One reason — vacancies. Dems want to keep as much pressure on the GOP as possible, especially through that Jan. 3 speaker vote.

— Sarah Ferris (@sarahnferris) November 17, 2022

As I wrote earlier, this only helps McCarthy.