This dumb question leads to a more serious question: is the American intelligence community playing politics? Because of all the nonsensical Russia-interference hot takes we’ve heard thus far, this one from CNN takes the cake.

According to their sources in the intel community, “senior Russian officials” held off on announcing their humiliation in Kherson in order to deny Joe Biden a “win” ahead of the midterms:

The US has intelligence that Russia may have delayed announcing its withdrawal from the Ukrainian city of Kherson in part to avoid giving the Biden administration a political win ahead of the midterm elections, according to four people familiar with the intelligence.

Senior Russian officials discussed the US midterms as a factor during deliberations about the withdrawal announcement, one person familiar with the intelligence said. Waiting until after the US election was always a “pre-planned condition” of Russia’s withdrawal from Kherson, a second person familiar with the intelligence told CNN.

Still, the election was far from the only consideration in Russia’s retreat, officials said. Military analysts say Russia had few other operational options and had been preparing to pull back for weeks, leading US officials to wonder when the Russians would officially acknowledge the withdrawal.

While the intelligence is not a formal assessment of Russia’s intentions, it is a sign that Russia has a continued interest in influencing the US political landscape — although the sources said Russia probably miscalculated the impact such an announcement would actually have on the elections.

It’s a sign that either US intel analysts have too much time on their hands or are too invested in the Russia-interference narrative. Does Russia interfere in our elections? Sure, and they’ve been doing that since the Soviet era. China interferes in our elections too, and Iran to whatever extent they can, and so on. Their interference has a negligible impact on outcomes, and mainly exists as a form of Merry Pranksterism, these days usually in tone-deaf memery that amplifies the fringe right and left a small amount. There is zero evidence that this actually changes voter behavior even at the granular level, but there has been a cottage industry built up now in Russia-collusion paranoia, thanks to Democrats’ continued hyperventilation about it.

This, however, raises that paranoia to an absurd level. Russia is in the process of getting its military destroyed and its credibility ruined in Ukraine. One key strategic objective for Vladimir Putin in the invasion was to build ground lines of communication (GLOCs) to the previously (and illegally) annexed Crimea. That is why Putin also spent a reported $4 billion on the bridge over the Kerch Strait, but which was insufficient militarily. Kherson is the linchpin of those GLOCs into Crimea, which is why Putin seized Kherson as fast as possible and put his best units into that theater to protect it.

Even more importantly, Putin’s invasion rested politically on his Russian-supremacy argument that imagined Russia as a first-rank military, political, and cultural superpower. That gave him no room to admit failure, let alone retreat and military losses — and especially a retreat that risks a Ukrainian liberation of Crimea, which is likely what will come next.

So who in their right mind would believe that Russian officials’ main point of calculation around admitting a humiliation in Kherson, of all places, was how it would play in the American midterm elections? Come on, man. Russian officials didn’t delay their exit to get past November 8 and Joe Biden’s political risks. They delayed it as long as possible before Ukrainians forced them to retreat in some semblance of order to protect the most effective formations Russia still has in the field, because this failure could cost the regime its life.

It has cost the regime its political support from the ultranationalist milbloggers, ISW reports, at least temporarily. They erupted in outrage to Volodymyr Zekensky’s triumphal entry and tour of newly liberated Kherson, and accused the Putin regime of defeatism if not cowardice:

Russian milbloggers seized on Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s November 14 visit to Kherson City to criticize Russian military capacity more substantively than in previous days during the Russian withdrawal from the right bank of Kherson Oblast. Russian milbloggers largely complained that Zelensky arrived in Kherson City and was able to move around with relatively little concern about Russian strikes in his vicinity and questioned why Russian forces did not launch strikes on Zelensky.[3] One prominent milblogger noted that this shows that Russia does not want to win the war and criticized Russian forces for allowing Zelensky to step foot on “Russian territory.”[4] Russian milbloggers have notably maintained a relatively muted response to the Russian loss of the right bank in the past days, as ISW has previously reported.[5] The clear shift in rhetoric from relatively exculpatory language generally backing the withdrawal as a militarily sound decision to ire directed at Russian military failures suggests that Russian military leadership will likely be pressured to secure more direct gains in Donetsk Oblast and other areas.

That may be what the Kremlin will sell, but that’s not going to impress too many people in Russia. In the first place, Russian forces are struggling to occupy new ground, mostly strategically insignificant, in Donetsk. Secondly, Russia controlled most of Donetsk through ethnic-Russian proxy forces for the eight years prior to the invasion; they’re struggling to maintain what they already had, not gain new or strategically important ground. Third, the Ukrainians are still slowly advancing in Luhansk and will eventually cut off Russian GLOCs to their Donetsk theater:

Ukrainian forces continued their counteroffensive operations on the Svatove-Kreminna line on November 13 and 14. Geolocated footage published on November 13 confirmed that Ukrainian forces liberated Makiivka, approximately 23km southwest of Svatove.[14] Commander of the Russian combat army reserve unit BARS-13, Sergey Femchenkov, claimed that the situation on the Svatove frontline “escalated,” forcing Russian forces to retreat from the Makiivka area.[15] Ukrainian and Russian sources reported ongoing clashes in the direction of Novoselivske, Volodymyrivka, and Stelmakhivka (all just northwest of Svatove) in the direction of the R66 highway.[16] Some Russian milbloggers noted that motorized rifle elements of the 1st Tank Army are holding defensive positions in the vicinity of Novoselivske.[17] The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) also claimed that Ukrainian forces continued to attack Russian positions in the Chervonopopivka area, fewer than 10km northwest of Kreminna.[18] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces stopped Russian assaults near Torske, about 16km due west of Kreminna.[19] Ukrainian forces also continued to target Russian logistics on the Svatove-Kreminna line, and geolocated footage showed the aftermath of a Ukrainian HIMARS strike on a Russian base on Miluvatka, just south of Svatove.[20]

And let’s not forget the fourth point, which is again Crimea. Losing Kherson and retreating back toward Donetsk might fortify the latter and allow for more offensive action there, but Ukraine will almost certainly cut off any remaining lines of resupply to Crimea simultaneously. They will then launch offensives on the cut-off Russian formations — which are the same groups launching drone strikes on Ukraine’s civilian power infrastructure — to force them into surrender and/or the Black Sea. Eventually, Russia will lose its naval base at Sevastopol and a large chunk of its regional strategic power with it. Occupying a few insignificant villages in Donetsk — temporarily — won’t sell as a good trade with Russians, even those in thrall to Putin.

With all of that going on, what priority does anyone think the Russians placed on the midterm elections? It doesn’t take a lot of intelligence of either variety to figure this one out, which again prompts the question of whether leakers within the US intel community are attempting to play politics and do some interfering on their own.

Update: I suppose Russia delayed this missile attack until after media outlets called the Arizona governor’s race, too:

Russia fired missiles at targets in Ukraine on Tuesday, with at least two striking residential buildings in the center of Kyiv, the capital, as Moscow unleashed one of its first major aerial attacks since Ukraine recaptured a key city in the south.

“Residents of Kyiv, stay in shelters, two explosions have been recorded in the capital so far,” the Kyiv City Administration wrote in a message to residents.

The Ukrainian Air Force warned earlier this week that Moscow was stockpiling missiles to renew its assault on Ukraine’s already battered energy infrastructure. Russian forces launched a series of attacks, including with drones, that targeted Kyiv and other cities in October, striking civilian targets and infrastructure.