All three, probably, although polls may not capture it. Inflation still drives the political debate in this cycle by far, a fact that media outlets and pollsters are belatedly recognizing (or perhaps belatedly admitting) in the final days of the midterms. Democrats’ attempts to change the subject from the economy have utterly failed, and the red wave materializing as a result may well end up a tsunami because of it.

However, the red wave of 2021 may well still exist as an undertow in 2022. Remember that stunning cycle last year, which pollsters also missed, in Virginia and New Jersey? That had less to do with the economy than with a parental-rights revolt in education against the progressive education establishment. The Hill sees Republicans “seizing” on it again, and sees signs that the revolt still undergirds Republicans a year later, too:

Republicans are seizing on the issue of parents’ rights ahead of November, arguing it could swing key Senate and House races toward their party and help them win back power in Congress. …

“Parents want education, not indoctrination, and we should expect this movement to have a major impact in the midterm elections. This is one of many issues causing voters to support conservatives — the same people who care about education care about others like inflation and crime,” Jessica Anderson, executive director of the conservative group Heritage Action, said in a statement to The Hill.

Republicans believe Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin’s (R) victory last year provides a blueprint for how the issue can propel GOP candidates to success. Youngkin capitalized on frustration over mask mandates and remote learning even after vaccines were widely available, as well as the handling of LGBTQ issues in the classroom, in his campaign to defeat former Gov. Terry McAuliffe (D).

Republicans believe many of those same issues apply to parents across the country and that they can convince voters that Democrats are a party that overreaches and makes decisions that are better left to parents.

Let’s focus a bit on The Hill’s Republicans Pounce!® narrative. It should be more like Democrats Never Learn, because even in Virginia, the lesson didn’t sink in. Less than a year after Republicans swept Virginia and nearly unseated Phil Murphy in New Jersey, Virginia Democrats are still faceplanting on parental rights.

Last week, Democrats tried pushing a bill that would put criminal penalties in place for parents that didn’t respect their children’s LGBTQ+ declarations, usually helpfully facilitated by public school personnel. After a national backlash, the sponsor decided to withdraw it — but not before Elizabeth Guzman reminded parents around the country why they can’t trust their children to Democrats:

Guzman continued to defend her reasoning for wanting the legislation, but apparently changed her mind on introducing such a bill in the state legislature after Democratic House Minority Leader Don Scott Jr. said Friday that Del. Guzman’s proposal would be “dead on arrival” if it is introduced in the next General Assembly.

“If the child shares with those mandated reporters, what they are going through, we are talking about not only physical abuse or mental abuse, what the job of that mandated reporter is to inform Child Protective Services (CPS),” Guzman continued. “And then that’s how everybody gets involved. There’s also an investigation in place that is not only from a social worker but there’s also a police investigation before we make the decision that there is going to be a CPS charge.”

According to Guzman, this law would have been put in place to “educate parents.”

It was proposed to “educate” parents into submission to the gender-theory establishment, and to intimidate them into surrendering their children to it. And every parent of public-school children got that message loud and clear.

My friend Hugh Hewitt argues that the Left’s attempts to seize control of children will lead to a ballot revolt across the nation, and that pollsters are missing it just as they did a year ago:

Education is the iceberg issue of 2022 — most of its force lies hidden below the surface, but there will be no getting around it for Democrats. Youngkin’s victory was widely attributed to parents voting for his proposed agenda for the commonwealth’s public schools. Republicans, already the party of change in American education, watched and learned.

It’s important to grasp the role that education plays in the GOP’s midterms appeal. Yes, soaring inflation is almost certainly the biggest issue on which GOP candidates are campaigning. Everyone’s got to eat, most people have to drive, and the “Biden Inflation,” as Republicans routinely refer to it, is everywhere impacting all voters.

But Republicans especially need to win back “suburban moderates” — particularly parents, and particularly moms. Republicans have been telling voters for as long as I can recall that teachers unions, allied with Democrats, are a disaster for public education. “We love teachers,” the typical GOP office seeker asserts, “but we think teachers unions in public schools are not putting children and parents first.” …

The 2022 referendum on public schools is nowhere on the ballot but everywhere on parents’ minds. Youngkin showed the way. Ducey advanced the issue dramatically. Almost every Republican is following the path laid out: Demanding “root and branch” reform of failed public schools.

This issue hits right at the heart of the family, and is definitely part of the daily lived experiences of Americans with school-age children. The radical nature of public education creates a massive disconnect with the rest of the electorate. This may not percolate into specific polling, but that’s mainly because pollsters don’t ask questions that directly relate to the parental-rights issue, either. And yet we’ve seen its direct electoral impact, not just in Virginia’s elections last year, but in Ron DeSantis’ massive victories in ousting progressive school-board members in Florida’s August primary elections and his victory against practically every mainstream media and corporate organization in his Parental Rights in Education bill.

This isn’t a “sleeper,” or even an “iceberg.” This is the cultural foundation of the red wave that looks like it’s about to roll across the US, and catch everyone by surprise. Again.