What do a KGB colonel and an Austrian corporal have in common? Military command skill, apparently. With Russia’s war effort collapsing in Ukraine, Vladimir Putin has taken a page out of you-know-who’s book and begun to take operational command of Russia’s military in a desperate bid to reverse recent losses.

This comes as Ukrainians have apparently positioned themselves to recapture Kherson and cut off communications with Crimea, the New York Times reports:

President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia has thrust himself more directly into strategic planning for the war in Ukraine in recent weeks, American officials said, including rejecting requests from his commanders on the ground that they be allowed to retreat from the vital southern city of Kherson.

A withdrawal from Kherson would allow the Russian military to pull back across the Dnipro River in an orderly way, preserving its equipment and saving the lives of soldiers.

But such a retreat would be another humiliating public acknowledgment of Mr. Putin’s failure in the war, and would hand a second major victory to Ukraine in one month. Kherson was the first major city to fall to the Russians in the initial invasion, and remains the only regional capital under Moscow’s control. Retaking it would be a major accomplishment for President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine.

Assuming this is accurate, it sounds more than vaguely familiar. Perhaps this connection comes from Putin’s continued and ridiculous claims to be fighting “Nazis,” but this has echoes of Adolf Hitler’s eastern front after 1942. Hitler also assumed de facto operational command of his forces in Russia, which initially stemmed a rout but then led to catastrophic failures such as Stalingrad, where Hitler’s obstinacy cost him hundreds of thousands of soldiers that might have come in handy for him later. The decision to take personal charge was but one of Hitler’s many manifestations of megalomania, but it may have been the most militarily significant of them all.

Putin appears to be heading down the same road, whether out of megalomania or just out of necessity. Having launched the war, Putin can hardly afford to fail at it, or else his nationalist and imperial claims to power will vanish. In this case too, the failures of the Russian military stem less from the kind of impossible asks made in Hitler’s war than from sheer incompetence and corruption within the military hierarchy. No one expected the kind of collapses and failures of logistics, strategy, and execution we have seen from the Russian military over the last seven months; Putin likely can’t trust anyone left in the general officer corps to conduct this war.

Speaking of which, Putin just cashiered the man in charge of logistics for the Russian military:

Moscow replaced its top logistics general on Saturday after a series of setbacks as Kremlin-held regions of eastern and southern Ukraine voted for a second day on becoming part of Russia. …

“Army General Dmitry Bulgakov has been relieved of the post of deputy minister of defence” and will be replaced by Colonel General Mikhail Mizintsev, aged 60, the defence ministry said.

Mizintsev may perform better at the task, but the task has become nearly impossible. Russia should have relatively secure lines of communication into the Donbas at least, but Ukrainian attacks — especially with HIMARS artillery — have greatly complicated resupply. Storage depots keep getting destroyed, and that’s where Russian troops aren’t already running for their lives. And even if Putin can send more troops to stanch the bleeding, those new conscripts are even less likely to maintain discipline.

They’re not off to a good start, Newsweek notes this morning:

Footage of newly conscripted Russian troops who appeared to be drunk or unwilling to obey orders had already been shared to social media this week following President Vladimir Putin’s announcement of partial mobilization.

New videos reportedly show conscripts asleep, refusing to form ranks and in one case engaged in a fight. The footage has emerged as four areas of Ukraine now under Russian control carry out referendums on joining Russia, which have been widely dismissed as a “sham.”

Some exemplary discipline on show from Putin's newly mobilised troops

"Fall into two ranks, into two ranks!"

"You can f*ck off with your two ranks!" pic.twitter.com/eCHq1afbWj

— Francis Scarr (@francis_scarr) September 24, 2022

Neil Hauer, a journalist covering Russia and Ukraine, shared Scarr’s video and commented: “Russian mobilization videos are rapidly becoming one of the best subgenres out there.”

ABC News reporter Patrick Reevel shared a video on Friday that appeared to show a Russian army officer shouting angrily at recruits. In the video, which was subtitled in English, an officer tells the assembled men they are “screaming like women” and should shut their mouths.

Another revealing video. Scene inside a mustering station in Russia where an officer yells at angry, resentful men who have been mobilized.
“That’s it- playtime’s over. You’re soldiers now!”
pic.twitter.com/oTfomvgsUf

— Patrick Reevell (@Reevellp) September 23, 2022

You could be Carl von Clausewitz and still lose with this contingent of conscripts. Even if Putin is a nascent genius in military tactics and strategy, he can’t execute either with an impressment army stocked significantly with criminals and anti-war protesters. There is very little hope of instilling military discipline into such troops, especially on the timeline required for Putin in attempting to salvage his positions in Ukraine against forces that are now battle-tested, disciplined, highly motivated to liberate their own country, and with better leadership.

In Kherson, the Russians appear to be holding, but the question is for how much longer. Ukrainians have made advances all along the line this month, and the continued pressure will eventually deplete Russian forces that cannot easily resupply, let alone get reinforced. ISW notes that Ukraine is staying quiet about its operations on its southern axis, but Putin’s new order denying permission for an orderly retreat may speak for itself:

Ukrainian military officials maintained their operational silence regarding Ukrainian ground attacks in Kherson Oblast but noted that Russian forces continued efforts to restore lost positions and fired along the entire line of contact on September 23. Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command reported on September 23 that Russian forces continued to organize their defense of occupied Ukrainian territories and are using aerial reconnaissance to search for opportunities to regain Ukrainian-held positions.[20]

Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command reported continued Ukrainian interdiction efforts against Russian positions in Kherson Oblast on September 22-23. Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command reported that Ukrainian forces conducted seven airstrikes against Russian forces and anti-aircraft assets on September 23 and conducted 99 fire missions.[21] Ukrainian forces reportedly destroyed two command posts in Henichensk (just north of the Crimean Peninsula) and Kakhovka Raions. Social media users reported explosions on September 22 and 23 in Nova Kakhovka.[22] Ukrainian forces maintained fire control over the Kakhovka Bridge over the Dnipro River.[23] Social media footage published on September 23 depicted additional Ukrainian artillery strikes on a Russian warehouse and damaging a Russian armored vehicle near Liubymivka, 80km northeast of Nova Kakhovka.[24] A Kherson-based Ukrainian source reported on September 22 that Ukrainian forces likely targeted unspecified Russian military positions in Chornobaivka, just north of Kherson City.[25] A Russian milblogger confirmed reports of Ukrainian Tochka-U missile fire into Kherson Oblast.[26]

Putin’s decision to take personal operational charge is an all-or-nothing choice. If Kherson collapses, the humiliation will be Putin’s alone, as will any failures of his massive conscript army in the field. Putin is writing credibility checks that even his oligarchs might not cash if and when failure arrives. Unlike his Austrian-corporal predecessor, Putin does not have a massive cult of personality to rescue him domestically — especially when tens of thousands of Russians impressed into the army return in boxes or fail to return at all. How will those families and communities react at that point?

Update: I forgot to add the last sentence to the post to fully conclude that thought. Also, as one of our VIP commenters point out, Putin’s not only making the same mistake as Hitler, he’s making the same mistake as Czar Nicholas II. It didn’t end well for either absolute ruler, either.