Nothing says confidence like a party leader already plotting a golden parachute to deploy after the midterms. Nancy Pelosi apparently doesn’t put much stock into reports of sudden Democratic competitiveness, and maybe she shouldn’t.

We’ll get back to that in a moment, but Fox Business channel reports this morning that Pelosi is already angling to get an appointment from Joe Biden as ambassador to Italy as her exit as Speaker seems all but assured:

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi is planning her next move after an expected Republican victory in November.

Sources tell FOX Business that Pelosi wants President Biden to nominate her to become the next U.S. ambassador to Italy if the GOP takes the House majority in the midterm elections.

Biden is holding the spot for the speaker, sources say, which is one reason he has yet to fill the position since taking office. Speculation earlier this year that a Pelosi ally and former Wall Street executive wanted the job has shifted with the increasing likelihood that the GOP takes the majority.

So it’s not just Pelosi who’s not quite buying the big comeback narrative. Joe Biden’s also making contingency plans, even as he tries to turn the midterms into a referendum on Donald Trump rather than the first two years of his own presidency. That may help to limit Democratic losses — it seems to be helping close the gap, at least for the moment, in generic-ballot polling — but Politico threw some cold water on those prospects this morning.

The simple fact is that Republicans don’t have to do much to send Pelosi to Rome:

Still, House Democrats face this sobering fact: Republicans may not need to flip any districts that Biden carried in 2020 to reclaim the majority. Speaker Nancy Pelosi and her caucus are also staring down a coming wave of outside spending, which could swamp them in TV ads in the critical final weeks of the midterms. And historical precedence is not in their favor.

In all, Republicans need to net only five seats to win the gavel. And while Democrats may be poised to mitigate some losses, Republicans say there’s still little chance the party’s summertime surge can overcome the stacked map. …

Despite the undeniable shift in momentum toward Democrats, some Democrats say privately that a good night for their party would be limiting the GOP to single-digit gains. The drive to hold the majority has been hampered by an historic number of Democratic retirements, setbacks in redistricting and the fact that several Democratic incumbents are running in Trump-leaning territory.

While redistricting didn’t tilt as heavily to Republicans as some expected, the GOP emerged from the process with a healthy cushion of new GOP districts. They added deep red seats around Nashville, Atlanta and Houston and in eastern Montana. In Florida alone, Republicans are likely walking away with four new districts. Any path for a Democratic majority would mean erasing those gains by flipping GOP-held seats.

Without a doubt, the polls have tightened, but even that’s important to see in context. Here’s the chart from the last six months of RealClearPolitics’ aggregation, which shows that the average has it at a full-blown tie:

Bear in mind, however, that a tie on the generic ballot usually indicates a significantly positive result for the GOP. The structure of the House as well as the way polls are conducted usually gives Democrats a five-point advantage, as has been seen in practice for decades. Any result putting the GOP within five points of Democrats in these polls indicates a potential win, and even a tie here suggests a solid pickup number — not 60 seats, but perhaps 20-25 on the outside.

That’s why Pelosi apparently have moved her unnamed supporter out of way for this diplomatic appointment and is securing it for herself. Fox Business wonders if a GOP-controlled Senate will confirm her:

There was no clarity yet on how a new Senate will react to a Pelosi nomination, but there was a mixed reaction to her in the role from sources this week.

Meh.  Even in these partisan times, ambassador confirmations are still usually fairly mundane, especially when a member of the Capitol Hill club snags such a nomination. Republicans might be happy to send Pelosi out of the country for a while too while their new House majority gets settled into place. Count on her getting a quick pass to Rome, and into relative obscurity.