Suffice it to say that nearly anything Joe Manchin does at this point will anger progressives, but an intervention on a Supreme Court nomination for a moderate choice? Nuclear. Punchbowl reported this morning, in the midst of all the news on war in Ukraine, that Manchin has advised Joe Biden to go with Judge Michelle Childs, the jurist sponsored by Rep. James Clyburn but also supported by Senate Republicans Lindsey Graham and Tim Scott.

It’s not bad advice, but Biden’s not known for listening to good advice either:

Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) has been privately telling his Senate colleagues that he’d like to see President Joe Biden nominate J. Michelle Childs to the Supreme Court, according to multiple sources.

Manchin has stopped short of endorsing Childs publicly. But Manchin has made it clear to other senators that he thinks Childs, a federal judge in South Carolina, would be a good choice to replace the retiring Justice Stephen Breyer. …

Manchin has specifically mentioned Childs’ public school education as a major plus. Childs went to the University of South Florida and earned a law degree at the University of South Carolina. Manchin has contrasted that with the rest of the Supreme Court, which is filled with Ivy League grads.

Furthermore, Manchin prefers a candidate who can win bipartisan support. Childs already has the backing of Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) and other Republicans may follow suit if she’s tapped for the highest court in the land. House Majority Whip Jim Clyburn (D-S.C.) has been Childs’ biggest booster and has been personally lobbying senators, according to several sources. Clyburn’s office declined to comment.

It’s a smart move, especially at a moment when Biden could use a few positive news cycles and a show of bipartisanship. Nominating Childs would deliver a solid win for Clyburn, who rescued Biden’s presidential bid by delivering South Carolina in the Democratic primaries. It would strip the GOP of an argument that Biden has abandoned moderation. Childs could get well over 60 votes for confirmation, offering a bipartisan gloss that would help Democrats in the midterms.

It’s not as though Manchin would vote against the other short-listers publicly under consideration. However, it might come down to a 51-49 or a 52-48 vote that would make this nomination look like a partisan effort on behalf of progressives that have already seized control of the party’s legislative agenda. With that agenda created a massive confidence-crisis cascade already for Biden, and the debacle of Biden’s foreign-policy moves getting more focus again, Manchin’s probably looking for any win Biden can get for himself.

To do that, Biden will have to defy hardening support around the progressives’ darling, Judge Ketanji Brown Jackson:

President Joe Biden is on the cusp of picking a Supreme Court nominee, and a dozen progressive groups are revealing their preferred candidate among the finalists: U.S. Appeals Court Judge Ketanji Brown Jackson.

In a Wednesday letter to Biden led by the courts-focused Demand Justice, the 12 groups nudge him to nominate someone with a background working as a public defender or in civil rights.

“As you consider your most important judicial nomination to date, we urge you to build on your commitment to professional diversity by appointing someone with civil rights or public defense experience to the Supreme Court,” they write in the letter, as first reported by NBC News.

The letter comes one day after NBC News and other outlets reported that Biden has interviewed two other finalists in addition to Jackson: U.S. District Judge J. Michelle Childs of South Carolina, and California Supreme Court Justice Leondra Kruger. Of the three, only Jackson has the background that the progressives mention in the letter.

Although they didn’t name names, the letter appears unmistakably crafted to boost Jackson, who is currently a judge on the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit, in the final stretch before a decision.

Would Biden stand up to progressives in order to score an easier win? Maaaayyyyybeee, but it would be the first time in his presidency if he did.

Meanwhile, a curious bit of timing from the DC circuit has some wondering if Manchin’s too late. Steve Vladek offers his take:

In other words, there's no reason why the D.C. Circuit would have done this (i.e., hand down this particular ruling today, versus waiting for tomorrow) unless (1) Judge Jackson is going to be the President's #SCOTUS nominee; and (2) the announcement is coming by COB tomorrow.

— Steve Vladeck (@steve_vladeck) February 24, 2022

That is indeed curious, although not conclusive. Besides, Biden still has a few days to go before his self-declared deadline of Monday, and has other matters to deal with at the moment too. If Brown Jackson was the nominee, Biden could easily have waited until tomorrow afternoon or Monday to make his announcement rather than disrupt the DC circuit’s schedule. In fact, with war breaking out overnight, today would be a very poor time to make a SCOTUS appointment announcement; Biden will want maximum attention to his “historic” choice, no matter which candidate he appoints in the end. Today is certainly not the right time for that kind of victory lap.