And this matters more for 2024 than it might for 2022. The latest Mason-Dixon poll puts Ron DeSantis in the catbird seat for his gubernatorial re-election, putting him in the lead well past the margin of error against all Democratic challengers. Only former governor Charlie Crist gets within single digits of DeSantis in this poll, and Democrats’ main attack point hasn’t registered with Florida voters at all:

When matched up against his current potential Democratic challengers, DeSantis receives the support of slightly over half of Florida’s voters and his leads provide a decent cushion at this point in the race.

Statewide, DeSantis leads former governor and current Representative Charlie Crist by a 51%-43% margin, Agriculture Commissioner Nikki Fried by 53%-42% and State Senator Annette Taddeo by 53%-37%. These leads all appear to be related to DeSantis’s name recognition advantage, although Crist is almost comparably well known.

Fried has gotten most of the primary attention thanks to her high-profile attacks on DeSantis over his COVID-19 policies. That has apparently backfired on Fried, however, as Crist has a nearly 20-point lead over Fried among Democratic primary voters:

Crist is the gubernatorial candidate who is most familiar to primary voters, and despite his previous statewide runs as both a Republican and an Independent, he has emerged as the frontrunner for the Democratic nomination. Statewide, 44% of Democratic primary voters currently support Crist, while 27% back Fried, 3% are for Taddeo and a significant 26% remain undecided.

In the end, this is a fight over who gets to be a sacrificial lamb. Democrats may be unhappy with DeSantis, but Democrats can’t control outcomes in Florida. And besides, when you have these kind of job approval ratings from independents …

Lotsa luck running in that environment even without Joe Biden being an albatross around Democrats’ necks. The splits between DeSantis and his challengers might even understate his lead at the moment when we look at the independent results in each of the head-to-heads:

• DeSantis/Crist: 56/33
• DeSantis/Fried: 59/31
• DeSantis/Taddeo: 59/26

DeSantis leads among indies by over twenty points in each of these match-ups. There’s no way any of them are within single digits of DeSantis, not even Crist.

NBC’s Marc Caputo notes that DeSantis is outperforming the field in other ways, too:

Coker said Florida Democrats are being hurt by President Joe Biden’s plummeting approval ratings as independents across the state and the country are leaning more toward the GOP.

“Biden is a drag, and the national Democratic Party brand is a drag,” Coker added.

DeSantis also has a massive cash advantage over his rivals. According to the most recent campaign finance filings with the state, DeSantis has more than $81.5 million in the bank between his political committee and his re-election campaign account. Crist has just $4.3 million, Fried $3.6 million and Taddeo less than $760,000.

Bear in mind that the three Democrats will have to burn most of those funds, if not their entirety, in the primary fight. The eventual nominee will get some help from the national party and their affiliates, but how much help? Probably not a lot. not even with the prospect of DeSantis using this election to undergird a presidential run two years from now. If Democrats throw a bunch of money against DeSantis and lose anyway, not only would that take resources away from more winnable contests, it will also make DeSantis look even more unbeatable ahead of the 2024 presidential primaries.

If these numbers hold up — especially the fundraising numbers — Democrats may have to write off Florida. With Joe Biden driving the midterms, Democrats will have to choose their battles very, very carefully.