Oh, there are solutions, but they’re unlikely to get applied — because they’re all worse than the status quo or completely unrealistic. Michael Oren, former Israeli ambassador to the US, told CBS News’ Major Garrett that he sees “no real solution for Gaza” in a podcast this week. The situation has settled into a deadly stasis, thanks in large part to Hamas’ grip on — and integration into — the civilian population in the enclave:
Oren, who served as ambassador from 2009 to 2013 under Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that “[Israel is] not going to send the army in there and lose a thousand kids. And at the end of the day, no one’s [going] to take the keys to Gaza. We’re back occupying. And it’s a mess.” …
“[The “Iron Dome”] creates disproportionality. And so on our side, you had (comedian) John Oliver saying, hey, like 10 Israelis being killed, but one hundred Palestinians are being killed. Well, I’m sorry, John, that we don’t have more people being killed. But in a way, if one of Hamas’s aims is to delegitimize us and get us labeled war crimes — Iron Dome, it’s a great tool.” …
“I’ve been in combat in Gaza. It is a hellhole. But one of the reasons that there are civilian casualties, because Hamas is built into these neighborhoods, and it’s built under the neighborhoods… So when you blow up a tunnel under an apartment house, there’s a good chance that now is going to come down,” Oren said. “And that was not Israel’s intention to kill those people by any means. So it is a tragic, tragic situation. I personally do not see any way we can handle it really any differently.”
Oren also spoke with my friend and fellow Salem colleague Mike Gallagher, who spoke at more length about the solution most people suggest. In theory, Oren says, a two-state solution could work, but the Palestinians keep refusing states when offered them. “They’ve been offered a state since the 1930s,” Oren says, quipping that they hold the record of refusing statehood. The Palestinians want Israel’s annihilation and refuse to accept their permanent status as a Jewish state:
The second solution would be for Gazans to eject Hamas. That won’t happen, even though it would likely be the move that would save the most Palestinian lives possible. Hamas is too dug into Gaza, in physical, economic, and political senses. Oren tells Garrett that the funds flowing into Gaza now (or soon) from Western states will end up mainly funding Hamas — and everyone knows it. That economic leverage allows Hamas to keep its grip on the civilian population, even while they use civilians as shields.
As for “conquest,” as Benjamin Netanyahu bluffed last week, that’s a non-starter for all the reasons that Oren gives. Even a light re-occupation is still an occupation, which is draining financially and politically. A conquest would cost thousands of Israeli lives and likely annihilate hundreds of thousands of civilians in door-to-door urban fighting, a moral cost that Israel simply can’t and won’t accept. And what would they do with a ruined Gaza and a destitute population that would still be murderously hostile to them?
Another solution offered at times is to get Jordan to take back the West Bank and Egypt to retake Gaza. Neither country wants those headaches either, and it wouldn’t actually solve anything. In fact, it would force Israel to give up strategic defense positions in the West Bank specifically, so that’s a non-starter.
So what is the solution? Egypt hopes to find one by hosting a new round of negotiations:
Egypt has invited Israel, Hamas and the Palestinian Authority for separate talks that aim at consolidating the cease-fire that ended an 11-day war between Israel and the Gaza Strip’s militant Hamas rulers, an Egyptian intelligence official said Thursday. The talks would also focus on accelerating the reconstruction process in Gaza.
“We are seeking a long-term truce, that would enable further discussions and possibly direct talks,” said the official, who had close knowledge of the proceedings that had led to the ceasefire and who spoke on condition of anonymity because he wasn’t allowed to brief reporters.
As Winston Churchill once observed, jaw-jaw is better than war-war, but prospects are even more dim than usual for negotiations. The Palestinians are feuding amongst themselves, and the Israelis haven’t been able to form a regular government for the last two years. Who are the negotiators that can guarantee long-term commitments on either side? Oren makes this point as well with Garrett, acknowledging that both sides have a poisonous political environment that practically guarantees failure at the bargaining table.
In other words, be prepared for the status quo for a while. A very long while.
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