Europe: Always Wrong, Never in Doubt

I remember, not so fondly, German diplomats laughing at Donald Trump when he warned them that depending on Russian fossil fuels was a dangerous mistake that made them vulnerable. 

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Trump, you may recall, tried mightily to stop the NordStream 2 pipeline because it gave Russia too much control over German and by extension European energy sources. 

Trump was right, of course. Germany is deindustrializing right now because energy prices have skyrocketed, and it still depends on Russian gas despite being in a proxy war with Russia. In fact, German and the Europeans as a whole are giving more revenue to Russia paying for oil and gas than they have provided Ukraine in military aid. 

Donald Trump threatened, cajoled, and practically begged European countries to live up to their treaty commitments to spend at least two percent of their GDP on military preparedness, and all but two failed to do so. They willfully broke their promises, secure in the belief that the United States would defend them no matter how far they violated their own commitments. 

As a result, they are dependent on the United States for their defense and feel that their weakness is a sufficient argument to force the United States to do whatever they want, including funding a proxy war against Russia we want nothing to do with. 

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Add this to Tusk's calculus: 500 million Europeans asking 300 million Americans to defend them against 140 million Russians WHO FAILED TO DEFEAT 40 MILLION UKRANIANS. 

Do you really believe Russia is a threat to Europe or the United States? Do the math. 

As Donald Tusk rightly said, Europe has more than sufficient resources to defend itself should it so choose, but instead they continue to try to bully the United States to do what they refuse to do themselves. 

We are the bad guys because, after 8 decades of bleeding, dying, and paying for their defense, we want the Europeans to step up. 

Now the Europeans are having a hissy fit because we no longer are willing to endure their tantrums, and instead of just doing the rational thing and enhancing their defenses, they are talking about actually going to war with Russia. As in nuclear powers like France and Germany, sending troops to face down the nuclear power Russia on Ukrainian soil. 

And they aren't just talking about pushing Russia out of Ukraine--presumably Crimea as well as the Donbas, if Zelensky is to be believed, but going so far as to defeat the Russian army on Russian soil and break up the Russian state. 

If that really IS the European goal, isn't that confirming what Vladimir Putin said about Europe's goal and his reason for starting the war? He claimed it was a war of defense because NATO wanted to destroy Russia, and now the European Union's Vice President is saying that they want to destroy Russia.

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I am not justifying Putin's invasion, but the EU seems to be doing its best to confirm Putin's worst fever dreams. If you don't want somebody to believe that you want to destroy their country, best not to say "I want to destroy your country."

Call me crazy, but, not wanting to fight to the last Ukrainian in order to achieve precisely nothing--Russia will not collapse, will certainly not retreat from Crimea, and is unlikely to be kicked out of the east--is immoral. Having an unachievable war aim is not Churchillesque. It is deluded and immoral. 

I do not believe a single European leader is worried about Russian troops invading Berlin or Paris, and claiming otherwise is just lying. London? Are you kidding? Aside from being literally impossible for Russia to achieve--their supply lines didn't make it to Kiev--why on Earth would they want to? 

Russia is a strategic competitor. It is not bent on world domination, and we should quit pretending it is and running around like chickens with our heads cut off. 

France and the United Kingdom are talking about using nuclear weapons on Russia. Is that smart? Is that sane? To defend a non-NATO country? I could understand threatening them to defend Poland because it is a NATO country, but Ukraine? Even Biden was not insane enough to risk a nuclear war with Russia and carefully calibrated his weapons delivery to the country to avoid precisely that. 

I simply do not believe that Russia has the capacity to move farther west. The war is a stalemate, and will have a negotiated solution. Neither country can make a serious breakthrough in the foreseeable future. The only thing that can fundamentally change the strategic calculus is direct European intervention and thus risking World War III. 

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So the question we face is simple: how many lives and how much risk is the Donbas worth? Is it worth a potential nuclear war? 

If the Europeans really think so, I want nothing to do with them. End the war now. It will be an unsatisfying end to a completely avoidable war that cost a million casualties. But that is better than a disastrous end to an unnecessary war with millions of casualties. 

If you have a better solution--not a hope, but a strategy--please share it. Shoulda coulda woulda is not a strategy. 

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