Is it a troll, or a serious endorsement?

Even Matt Gaetz' colleagues aren't certain. Gaetz himself won't disavow his apparent endorsement of Kevin McCarthy, and his response to reporters when asked about it seem to suggest he might actually believe that Kevin McCarthy would make an excellent Chair of the Republican Party.

Mr. McCarthy, who is known for his fundraising prowess, would be considered an outsider to the insular RNC that usually elects its leadership from within its membership ranks. https://t.co/A6o0Zj3GQ0

— The Washington Times (@WashTimes) February 8, 2024

Fox News spins Gaetz's endorsement as a likely troll, but I have yet to be convinced. 

Rep. Matt Gaetz, R-Fla. – in a twist some colleagues wondered was a joke – said Wednesday that he endorses former Rep. Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., as Republican National Committee Chair. 

Gaetz, who spearheaded McCarthy's ouster from the House Speaker position last October, backed McCarthy as a potential replacement for RNC Chair Ronna McDaniel amid reports she will step down. 

"I fully endorse Kevin McCarthy for RNC Chair. Kevin is well organized and a very high-revenue fundraiser. He will also be well-liked by the RNC Committee. The RNC Chair doesn’t make any policy decisions, set any agenda, or negotiate against Democrats, ever. Kevin would be terrific," Gaetz wrote on Tuesday. 

Gaetz famously led the charge to oust Kevin McCarthy as Speaker of the House--a move I thought utterly pointless given the constraints under which any Speaker of the House faces with a closely divided caucus. Current Speaker Mike Johnson has, as a practical matter, been no different than McCarthy because, well, no Republican Speaker with such a small majority could enforce caucus discipline. 

Ask Alejandro Mayorkas about that. 

Here's Matt Gaetz blaming Kevin McCarthy for their failed impeachment vote despite how Gaetz was the one who drove him out of Congress. It's fantastic how much Gaetz hates Kevin, and how it bit him in the ass in the end. The glorious Schadenfreude of Republicans eating their own. pic.twitter.com/jcTwxF8SQv

— Alyssa (@alyssaAtHome) February 7, 2024

I haven't a window into Matt Gaetz's mind--he is a mercurial guy with a penchant for holding grudges, but a lot of people think that McCarthy would be a pretty good Chair of the Republican Party. As Gaetz pointed out in his tweet, the RNC Chair is there to raise money and be a traffic cop, not to make policy. Ronna McDaniel has had zero impact on policy--witness Matt Gaetz's ability to oust Kevin McCarthy from the speakership, a move that no Establishmentarian would want. Congressmen do what Congressmen do.

What the Party does is raise and spend money, and Kevin McCarthy was extremely good at that. The Washington Times story  was more friendly to the idea that Gaetz might have been serious. 

The endorsement is curious as Mr. McCarthy, California Republican, left Congress in December just weeks after he was ousted as House speaker in a GOP rebellion led by Mr. Gaetz.

Mr. Gaetz and seven other House Republicans joined with all the chamber’s Democrats to remove Mr. McCarthy as speaker.

Mr. McCarthy, who is known for his fundraising prowess, would be considered an outsider to the insular RNC that usually elects its leadership from within its membership ranks. Still, it is not against its bylaws for individuals outside its 168 members to run for the chairmanship.

The last time Mr. McCarthy led a similar organization was when he was chairman of the Young Republican National Federation from 1999 to 2001.

The problem Kevin McCarthy had as Speaker was not the fact that he was a liberal or a RINO--I know many of you disagree--but that the Republican Caucus is more divided and less disciplined than the Democrats. In terms of getting things done, good or bad, that is a bad thing. It leads to unsatisfying, even infuriating compromises, or when compromise is impossible, stalemates. 

Stalemates such as it taking more than three weeks to elect Speaker Johnson. Candidate after candidate was rejected because, well, Republicans couldn't agree. No Speaker can easily overcome the raw fact that the Republicans are divided. Add in the fact that Republicans face a Democrat Senate and Democrat President and failure to get things done will be reality until the balance of power changes. 

I don't know whether a McCarthy Chairmanship would change the facts on the ground. But even more than that, I don't know why McCarthy would want the job. Then again, I wouldn't want any of these jobs, so of course his motives might be mysterious. 

Of course, Ronna McDaniel has yet to resign, and has sent mixed signals about whether she will. There is ample reason for her to do so--she hasn't been good at helping Republicans get elected--but since when have people in politics cared much about such mundane matters?

The bottom line is that the Republican Party is a mess, and that is unlikely to change in the short term. Their prospects in the 2024 elections are going to be mostly determined by how badly Biden does and how much voters want a change. 

That, and how well the Democrats are organized and how effective their rigging of the electoral environment. They are geared up to censor, to manipulate voting methods, and to use the justice system to throw bombs at the Republicans and Trump. 

Don't expect Republicans to do a good job campaigning; it will all come down to how much Americans hate the Democrats.