Well, this was a bit unexpected, given what Trump supporters have been implying about what Trump’s Ukraine policy would be.

Far from cutting off funds or ending the war (the latter of which Trump has indeed promised), Trump, at a rally, told the audience that the US has been bearing a disproportionate portion of the cost and he would pressure European governments to increase their own contributions to the same level as the United States.

John Bolton and other war pundits are going around warning that Trump will abandon Ukraine and withdraw from NATO. They did the exact same thing in 2016 — then Trump did the opposite when in power. They perpetually need a fantasy version of Trump to fuel their angsty obsession

— Michael Tracey (@mtracey) February 1, 2024

Given that this is Trump, I wouldn’t call this an iron-clad-take-it-to-the-bank promise to keep pouring billions of dollars into Ukraine’s war coffers, but it does suggest that the view that both Trump supporters and his opponents have of him are grossly oversimplified.

The Left keeps talking as if Trump would have handed Ukraine over to Putin, even though Putin invaded Ukraine twice now–under Obama and then Biden. He left the country alone when Trump was president, and Trump was the only president who sent Ukraine arms until the 2nd war began.

Trump’s supporters tend to oppose funding Ukraine, but Trump here suggests that his problem with funding Ukraine is that only the US is doing so, with small token contributions from European states. As with NATO–an organization he criticized but kept funding–he talks very tough to the Europeans but shows no signs of abandoning American commitments.

This is very Trumpian. As a guy who likes to bully his friends into doing what he thinks is right, he tends to talk tougher to them than his opponents abroad, with whom he tends to talk softly and carry a big stick.

As a practical matter, it is impossible to guess what Trump will do in office, at least as much because it is difficult to know what the situation in Ukraine will be in 2025 as it is to guess what is truly going on in Trump’s mind.

Still, it is worth noting that Trump was entirely right about NATO, and if they had followed his advice, they would be much better prepared to deal with the emerging strategic situation in Europe than they actually are. Trump was 100% right to bully European countries, not just because his policy prescriptions were right, but because European countries have been promising for decades to invest in their militaries and they have done the opposite.

Trump’s NATO threats were totally appropriate–our NATO allies had been lying for years and needed a kick in the seat of their pants.

Unlike many of you, I don’t think the US should pull out of NATO, but I also don’t think we should be patsies either. The EU is rich and should carry its weight. Our interests in European security are economic; theirs are existential. The US should be much more focused on maintaining the balance of power in Asia than protecting rich European countries. And Europe benefits almost as much as we do from stability in Asia, the center of gravity of the world economy.

We would be poorer if Europe became riskier; we would take a massive body blow if Asia became a war zone.

In any case, we now have a bigger hint about Trump’s views on Ukraine, and both sides of the aisle will ignore it because it contradicts their expectations.