Germany is contemplating reinstating conscription because war with Russia within the next 5 years is now considered a distinct possibility.

That sounds insane despite the fact that European countries are seriously underprepared to defend themselves. Germany barely has a functional military anymore, despite promises to radically increase military readiness. German Leopard tanks are failing in Ukraine, the Luftwaffe is almost a joke, and their ammunition stockpiles are woefully inadequate.

The UK is still downsizing its military, believe it or not.

Grant Shapps defends cuts to troop numbers because soldiers have a "can-do" attitude: https://t.co/9KfUqtdH2f

— Danielle Sheridan (@SheridanDani) January 16, 2024

Still, Russia has proven to be a pretty incompetent military, and NATO has always been able to rely on US defense promises.

The US could defeat Russia on the battlefield.

So why are European military and political leaders worrying about a confrontation with Russia. Until recently I discounted the possibility of direct conflict.

"Prepare for a NATO-RUSSIA WAR!"

"Civilians need to play their part."

Germany could bring back conscription. NATO weapons build-up & large scale exercises have begun.

Is this just propaganda or are they preparing the public for the next phase of #UkraineWar? pic.twitter.com/itYlWEIAKf

— András László (@laszloan) January 25, 2024

The mistake that I was making was a simple but stupid one: assuming that a Russian military challenge to NATO would be a direct challenge to create a military-to-military attack.

It’s an easy mistake to make, but it fundamentally misunderstands what goal Russia would have in challenging NATO militarily. If you think that Russia would want to retake one or more of the Baltic states, you would have to assume that this would be a very risky move. Other NATO countries would likely respond, which would be devastating to the assets Russia put at risk.

Air power alone would be devastating because chances are good that NATO would begin the war with air superiority and rapidly have air dominance. Russia clearly has an air force that is inferior in quality to Western countries, and the US would be able to rapidly deploy devastating force. If Ukraine can hold its own against Russia, it would have no chance against combined NATO forces.

But what if Russia takes a different path?

This video changed my mind, and I highly recommend you watch it.

What if, instead of invading a high-value target like a densely populated region of NATO, Russia moves into the remote region of one in a way that doesn’t threaten the sovereignty of that or any other country but is a clear violation of NATO treaties?

In other words, what if it does something that isn’t worth a full-scale war with a nuclear power?

What if Russia invades Lapland–the northernmost region of Finland where very few people live? (My ancestors on my paternal grandfather’s side are probably from the Swedish Lap region.) There is almost no economic or strategic necessity to defend the territory, but Finland’s sovereignty will have been violated.

Is Lapland worth WWIII? Would a US president or German Chancellor want to risk escalation for territory that only affects a few thousand Sami people indigenous to the region? Few Finns live or visit there, relatively speaking, and the Sami are more Sami than Finnish.

Technically, all NATO countries should come to Finland’s defense, but would they? And if not, the unity of NATO is suddenly in doubt.

That would be Russia’s goal, not a full-scale invasion of Europe. Fracture NATO, and suddenly, Russia is far stronger relative to European countries.

'It wasn’t long before the few functioning Leopard tanks Germany had were sent to Ukraine.'

✍️ Lisa Haseldine: The dire state of Germany’s armyhttps://t.co/a4Yb9UOeal

— The Spectator (@spectator) January 26, 2024

How likely is such a conflict? Relative to a major direct conflict, it is vastly more likely than an invasion of Poland or Estonia.

If European countries had begun rearming years ago, as Trump insisted and Europe resisted (along with all the best people in the United States), the chances would be much lower.

Now, with European countries quite weak militarily, it would likely be a low-risk challenge to NATO for Russia.

If there is a direct conflict between NATO and Russia, it will likely look like this.