Iran is in a proxy war with the United States, and inching ever closer to directly attacking the US.

The proxy war is not new, but it has escalated dramatically since the October 7th Hamas massacre in Israel. There have been over 100 attacks on Americans and American assets, and as John wrote earlier, the Houthis attacked and hit a US ship in the Red Sea, and Iran fired missiles into Iraq either at or near the US Consulate there.

Those missiles were fired from Iranian soil, and Iran took responsibility.

#Breaking: U.S. Officials confirm a ballistic missile attack near the U.S. Consulate in Erbil, Northern Iraq, was directly launched by the IRGC from Iranian territory. pic.twitter.com/grELRfqIM6

— Open Source Intel (@Osint613) January 15, 2024

Both the attack on an American ship in the Red Sea and the missiles fired from Iran towards the US Consulate took place after Joe Biden assured the country that Iran had been sufficiently warned not to escalate the hostilities in the region.

A wag on Twitter summed up the safety and effectiveness of Joe Biden’s warnings to foreign adversaries:

Biden warnings work as well as Covid vaccines. https://t.co/ZXtZ5DA8mi

— IT Guy (@ITGuy1959) January 15, 2024

Iran has clearly decided to keep testing the United States’ resolve and with good reason. Despite what has amounted to pinprick attacks on the Houthis in Yemen, the US seems to have taken a “sit back and take it” approach to Iran’s aggression.

It’s still too early to see the Biden Administration’s response to the attack in Erbil, Iraq, but it’s long past time to make a judgment about the effectiveness of Biden’s policy choices in the Middle East.

The dumpster fire stinking up the place and the lives being lost in the region are all due to Biden’s appeasement of the Iranian regime.

Biden seems to believe–following his mentor Barack Obama–that there can be a reconciliation between the US and Iran. Nixon’s policy of propping up the Shah to have an effective ally in the region made sense–the Shah was our friend and provided a counterbalance to the more radical regimes in the region.

The same cannot be said of the Democrats’ recent policies, which seem to be guided by the idea that the Mullahs can become as friendly to our interests as the Shah.

That is never going to happen.

Never.

Iran can commit these atrocities, either directly or through their proxies because they are confident that Biden is weak and ineffective. They can be confident of this because, well, Biden is weak and ineffective.

Deterrence only works when your adversary believes he will pay a price if he crosses a red line. Iran has been inching toward that line with the proxies, and the missile attack in Erbil is tiptoeing across it.

Will Biden respond, or will he treat red lines as Obama did?

Even if Biden strikes back, he bears responsibility for allowing things to get this far. Thousands of people are dying in the Middle East because Iran has felt confident about their ability to act with impunity. So far, their confidence has been warranted.

UPDATE:

In a third statement, the IRGC claims it destroyed a Mossad station as part of its offensive of ballistic missiles.

There is no independent confirmation of this to be clear.

“The Revolutionary Guards, with its nobility and intelligence control over the headquarters… https://t.co/u7e6aP88Hu

— Yashar Ali 🐘 (@yashar) January 15, 2024

John’s assessment is that the US Consulate was not the target of the attack, as it was not hit by a missile.

Perhaps. Even likely.

But Iran is clearly testing the United States and making us look like a paper tiger.

They are succeeding in doing so because Biden’s America is a paper tiger. Ask the Taliban.