One tidbit from the New York Times/Siena poll really stood out: the more diverse a battleground state, the worse that Biden is doing in the polls.

That’s a slap in the face to the “diversity is our strength” party.

Trump Leads Biden in Nearly Every Battleground State, New Poll Finds – The New York Times https://t.co/G8nHh7vwnV

— Josh Kraushaar (@JoshKraushaar) November 5, 2023

Discontent pulsates throughout the Times/Siena poll, with a majority of voters saying Mr. Biden’s policies have personally hurt them. The survey also reveals the extent to which the multiracial and multigenerational coalition that elected Mr. Biden is fraying. Demographic groups that backed Mr. Biden by landslide margins in 2020 are now far more closely contested, as two-thirds of the electorate sees the country moving in the wrong direction.

Voters under 30 favor Mr. Biden by only a single percentage point, his lead among Hispanic voters is down to single digits and his advantage in urban areas is half of Mr. Trump’s edge in rural regions. And while women still favored Mr. Biden, men preferred Mr. Trump by twice as large a margin, reversing the gender advantage that had fueled so many Democratic gains in recent years.

Black voters — long a bulwark for Democrats and for Mr. Biden — are now registering 22 percent support in these states for Mr. Trump, a level unseen in presidential politics for a Republican in modern times.

Add it all together, and Mr. Trump leads by 10 points in Nevada, six in Georgia, five in Arizona, five in Michigan and four in Pennsylvania. Mr. Biden held a 2-point edge in Wisconsin.

For decades the Democrat share of the White vote has been declining, generally speaking. This is the reason why Democrats keep crowing about the “browning” of America and that “diversity is our strength;” it has certainly been the key to Democrat victories in recent years, as minority voters have been very reliably in the Democrat column for as far as the eye can see into the past.

🚨 NEW: Biden's growing race problem:

• He's bleeding support among Hispanic voters and Black voters — especially younger ones, and especially in swing states. This is an alarming, re-election-threatening, full-blown crisis for the White House. https://t.co/nxCYkVrme2

— Axios (@axios) November 6, 2023

Any erosion, then, of the level of support for Democrats by the melanin-enriched voting bloc is a mortal threat to the Democrats, and that threat is very real. Black voters have shifted toward Donald Trump–he is still getting trounced, but his share of the Black vote is shooting up like a rocket. And Hispanic voters are shifting allegiances as well.

By the numbers: Sunday’s New York Times poll of six swing states (all of which Biden won last time) was brutal. While we’re skeptical of any one poll, this one is directionally in line with others. Let these once unthinkable findings sink in:

• Biden’s support among nonwhite voters dropped 33 points compared to 2020 results.
• The more diverse a state, the worse Biden does, The Times found.
• Trump’s support among Black voters popped to 22 points, which The Times called “unseen in presidential politics for a Republican in modern times.”
• Biden’s lead among Hispanics is in single digits in the six swing states polled (Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin). Democrats typically win among Hispanics by 30+ points.
• A CBS News/YouGov poll out Sunday had a similarly worrisome finding for Democrats: “Hispanic voters are much likelier to say their finances would improve under Trump than Mr. Biden. And most Black voters do not expect their finances to change if Mr. Biden wins again.”

What’s happening: Hispanic ranchers, Mexican American oil workers and non-college-educated Latino voters are shifting measurably from Democrats, with potentially devastating electoral repercussions, reports Axios’ Russell Contreras, who has studied the Latino vote back to JFK’s victory in 1960.

That shift was already apparent in 2020 when Trump actually gained with Hispanic voters despite the expectation that his anti-immigration rhetoric and policies would hurt him. And the shift has only accelerated.

The question is why, and the answer is that Hispanic voters are not all that dissimilar to White voters, whatever the Democrats think.

To understand what I mean, perform a simple experiment: without looking anything up, name a Hispanic activist focused on race issues; now do the same with African Americans.

Most Americans can name any number of prominent Black activists, going back decades. I, for one, can’t think of a single prominent Hispanic activist. I am sure they exist, but Hispanics as a group don’t actually focus on race nearly as much as Blacks do. Race is more of a niche issue.

It isn’t that Hispanics don’t have issues with race–but those issues are more similar to what the Irish or Italians experienced, and not nearly as deep-seated as those for African Americans.

This means that appeals based on race are less likely to resonate, especially when major issues like a flailing economy are at play. After all, Hispanics have immigrated to the United States to get ahead, not to become an identity group. And Hispanics who have lived here more than a generation see themselves as illegal immigrants no more than you or I would see illegal immigrants who are European.

Who cares? I am not organizing for Swiss, Welsh, Swedish, or Hungarian illegal immigrants just because my grandparents have those backgrounds. Same for many Hispanics.

That’s why Republicans biting into the Democrat lock on Black voters–which is also slipping but more slowly–will be harder to break. Being Black is for many people a genuine identity, not just one of many factors in who they are as a person. Younger Hispanics may be lured into identarian politics just as so many other young people are, but that is more a factor of youth than of race.

You can see why Democrats do everything possible to stoke racial division. It has become the backbone of their electoral strategy, only rivaled by their focus on retaining a major gender gap. As long as they can bank on identity politics they have a viable electoral coalition that wins more often than not.

But that coalition is breaking down, both because Hispanics are less susceptible to identarian appeals, but also just because Biden really sucks at being president.

The fact that Americans, by a HUGE margin, think Trump will be better for their pocketbook is Biden’s kryptonite. He has a year to turn that around, but no clear path to do it. It won’t be by opening the border even more, which I honestly think they thought was electoral gold with Hispanics. But Hispanics don’t think like that for the most part.

If Joe Biden loses–and who knows what November 2024 will look like–it will be because of that 33% drop in support from non-white voters.

That is a coalition killer, no matter how many free abortions Biden promises to the AWFLs.