Early polls mean nothing, right? After all, George H.W. Bush was flying high at this point in his presidency, and his reelection campaign crashed and burned.

That is what every avid Biden supporter must be thinking.

Unfortunately for Biden, the number of Biden supporters is getting smaller by the day, and many Democrats are no longer Biden supporters, although the majority will wind up voting for him if forced to.

“Voters under 30 favor Mr. Biden by only a single percentage point, his lead among Hispanic voters is down to single digits and his advantage in urban areas is half of Mr. Trump’s edge in rural regions.”

— Josh Kraushaar (@JoshKraushaar) November 5, 2023

But elections are won on margins, not the absolute number of votes. And presidential elections are won in swing states, not by counting all the votes everywhere and adding them up.

So Joe Biden may get nearly as many votes next year as last, with Democrats holding their nose. But will that be enough, or will a significant enough number of Biden voters stay home or vote for somebody else?

I think the answer is no, and so do an awful lot of Democrat establishment types, who are quietly and not-so-quietly panicking right now.

Two new polls came out over the weekend, and they justify Democrat panic. Of the battleground states, Biden only leads in one–and he does so there because his support with white voters (mainly AWFLs, or Affluent White Female Liberals) hasn’t collapsed as far as it has with other demographics. Biden is losing because minorities are fleeing from his coalition, and even young folks are displeased.

NYT POLL: "The more diverse the swing state, the farther Mr. Biden was behind" pic.twitter.com/ozjSNeJ2dr

— RNC Research (@RNCResearch) November 5, 2023

For a political party that argues “diversity is our strength,” it sure doesn’t look like the same holds for their electoral prospects.

Mind you, Democrats do well with minorities, but not well enough. They need killer numbers, and they are not there for Biden.

Discontent pulsates throughout the Times/Siena poll, with a majority of voters saying Mr. Biden’s policies have personally hurt them. The survey also reveals the extent to which the multiracial and multigenerational coalition that elected Mr. Biden is fraying. Demographic groups that backed Mr. Biden by landslide margins in 2020 are now far more closely contested, as two-thirds of the electorate sees the country moving in the wrong direction.

Voters under 30 favor Mr. Biden by only a single percentage point, his lead among Hispanic voters is down to single digits and his advantage in urban areas is half of Mr. Trump’s edge in rural regions. And while women still favored Mr. Biden, men preferred Mr. Trump by twice as large a margin, reversing the gender advantage that had fueled so many Democratic gains in recent years.

Black voters — long a bulwark for Democrats and for Mr. Biden — are now registering 22 percent support in these states for Mr. Trump, a level unseen in presidential politics for a Republican in modern times.

Add it all together, and Mr. Trump leads by 10 points in Nevada, six in Georgia, five in Arizona, five in Michigan and four in Pennsylvania. Mr. Biden held a 2-point edge in Wisconsin.

Panic is the right word to describe what these numbers strike into the hearts of Democrat hacks, like just about every MSM journalist.

The main reason Biden is flailing in the polls is something we all instinctively understand: things got better under Trump, and much worse under Biden. It really is that simple. People don’t like Trump any more than they did–everybody but the cultists knows he is an arsehole.

But he did a much better job and as much as people dislike him, their lives got better.

No one seems to like “Bidenomics,” the eponymous shorthand for Joe Biden’s economic policies — not voters, not Democratic officials, not even the president. https://t.co/zElqz0YXqm

— NBC News (@NBCNews) November 5, 2023

Maybe they should blame the press for the sturm und drang since they made your opinion about Trump the only thing that mattered.

Mr. Biden and Mr. Trump are both deeply — and similarly — unpopular, according to the poll. But voters who overwhelmingly said the nation was on the wrong track are taking out their frustrations on the president.

“The world is falling apart under Biden,” said Spencer Weiss, a 53-year-old electrical substation specialist in Bloomsburg, Pa., who supported Mr. Biden in 2020 but is now backing Mr. Trump, albeit with some reservations. “I would much rather see somebody that I feel can be a positive role-model leader for the country. But at least I think Trump has his wits about him.”

That one sentence sums up Biden’s dilemma, and it matters much more than one’s opinion about either man. Both are equally disliked; most people would prefer a different choice.

But between the two? The choice is pretty simple. Biden represents decline. And not notional decline, but “you can actually see and feel it” decline. Things are getting worse, the world is spinning out of control, and the world teeters on WWIII because he has proven Obama right: “Never underestimate Joe’s ability to f&&k things up.”

Another ominous sign for Democrats is that voters across all income levels felt that Mr. Biden’s policies had hurt them personally, while they credited Mr. Trump’s policies for helping them. The results were mirror opposites: Voters gave Mr. Trump a 17-point advantage for having helped them and Mr. Biden a 18-point disadvantage for having hurt them.

For Mr. Biden, who turns 81 later this month, being the oldest president in American history stands out as a glaring liability. An overwhelming 71 percent said he was “too old” to be an effective president — an opinion shared across every demographic and geographic group in the poll, including a remarkable 54 percent of Mr. Biden’s own supporters.

That spread is 35 points–Trump helped me, Biden hurt me. Boom. Enough said.

Only one president since modern polling began has had worse poll numbers at this point in his presidency, and the name is not one a candidate wants to be associated with: Jimmy Carter.

Carter’s opponent, who is now remembered fondly by most of the country, faced almost as much vitriol as Trump and was hardly a safe choice in 1980. Ronald Reagan took so much abuse that in retrospect it is hard to believe. He was vilified.

But he was also likable, which matters. Trump is not. Trump inspires a more visceral hatred than Reagan, and that is the biggest stumbling block he faces. Were it not for that this election would be nearly over.

Democrat strategist David Axelrod suggests Biden drop out of 2024 race https://t.co/pwI1bcvvYM pic.twitter.com/copIy1OjxC

— New York Post (@nypost) November 6, 2023

Still, while Biden has time to turn it around, it is hard to see how he will do so. The Democrat establishment desperately wishes they could replace him, but how? Unless Democrats in the House and Senate suddenly decide to help Republicans impeach him on corruption charges–hardly likely–the next best thing is to find a modern-day Lucrezia Borgia to take him out, and nobody has the stomach to do that besides Hillary Clinton.

Hmm. Keep an eye out to see if she gets a White House visit.