I was perusing a recent YouGov poll and the answer to one question popped out at me.

I had never seen the question asked before (it may have been; I just haven’t seen it before), and I was sadly not surprised by the answer.

Do you feel that things in this country these days are:

Under control 15%
Out of control 71%

.@YouGovAmerica/@TheEconomist, 1,500 Adults, 8/26-29https://t.co/IBIfc5gLIv pic.twitter.com/KjwveBao00

— Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) August 30, 2023

Only 15% of Americans believe that things are under control in this country. That is a shockingly low number and even worse than the Right Track (22%)/Wrong Track (66%) numbers.

We often look to the Right Track/Wrong Track numbers as a gauge of the mood of the country, and deservedly so. It gives you an overall sense of what people are thinking without any specific reference to a politician or issue about which they might have a residual loyalty. For instance, you might support Joe Biden and still think things suck. If we only look at your support of Biden we would be misled about your underlying feelings.

.@Reince: "41% of Democrats called Biden confused, slow, and bumbling." pic.twitter.com/NUQzEg9pKs

— Daily Caller (@DailyCaller) August 31, 2023

Thinking about this issue, it strikes me that the “under control” question adds a layer that tells us something important. For instance, during WWII during the Blitz a London resident might simultaneously think that things suck right now, be on the wrong track, but that Winston Churchill had things under control and that things might get better. There may be room for optimism, in other words.

People are least optimistic when they think nothing is under control. A rudderless ship might not be in immediate danger, but without a rudder, it is only a matter of time before everything goes to crap.

71% of Americans, meaning that even a large fraction of Democrats–think that America is rudderless because Joe Biden is a weak leader. In fact, people said exactly that when asked if Biden was a strong leader.

It is remarkable how few people think of Biden as a strong leader–you have to assume that a large fraction of that “somewhat strong” group was downplaying their doubts, as the poll indicates that a lot of people who think Biden is “somewhat weak” still support him over Trump. If Biden’s reelect number is higher than 35%–and it is nearly 10 points higher–then about a quarter of his support comes from people who see him as a weak leader.

The inverse is true of Trump, who is seen by many, including his detractors, as a strong leader:

A lot of people who see him as a strong leader also don’t like the direction he would lead us toward. Hence the statistical dead heat between Biden and Trump in the polls, with Biden at 43% and Trump at 44%, which is within the margin of error.

It is quite likely that the 2024 election will come down to this: Do you prefer a rudderless ship or a ship that is firmly in control but not going where you want it to?

It’s a fascinating question, and I think it will actually come down to this: how scared is the median voter of Donald Trump’s agenda? Do they buy the argument that he is a tyrant-in-waiting or simply believe he isn’t their cup of tea? If the former, Biden wins. If the latter, Trump wins.

People want a strong leader when times are tough, and times certainly are tough. Nobody likes the way things are going except Karine Jean-Pierre. The election, assuming Trump is the nominee, will be determined by the success or failure of the Democrats’ smear campaigns against Trump.