The new Harvard-Harris poll has come out and, needless to say, the news is beyond awful for Democrats. If there is anything at all to the poll’s results, a nuclear bomb is about to land on top of the Democrat Party. I was calling for a tsunami, but if the results of this poll are at all accurate a tsunami would be preferable for the Democrats. A lot of booze will be consumed by Dems on November 8, but it won’t be champagne.

Fascinating new Harvard-Harris poll:

The 3 issues Americans are most worried about: Inflation, Economy/Jobs and Immigration.

People perceive the GOP's top priorities are also those.

But they see that Dems are most obsessed with a 3-hour riot that happened almost 2 years ago: pic.twitter.com/lAPf477hGU

— Glenn Greenwald (@ggreenwald) October 16, 2022

Stay with me on this one because I am going to throw a lot of information at you.  I promise it will be worth it though. At least if you are a political junkie.

There is nothing new or surprising about voter pessimism, and this particular result frankly changes nothing about the political complexion of the country. People overwhelmingly believe that the country is moving in the wrong direction. But we already knew that.

And the general feeling that the country is going to hell is not due to some general sense, nor is it being driven by negative news coverage. This is very personal for people because their own finances are suffering. Voters may get cranky when they think the economy sucks, even if their own situation is OK. But when they see that their own finances are worsening, crankiness doesn’t come close to describing how unhappy they are:

No amount of Biden/Democrat propaganda can change people’s minds about whether things suck. Because we are all experiencing it in our personal lives. Abstract unhappiness moves votes. When it is concrete and they blame you, run away. I would hate to be a Democrat door knocking/canvassing in swing districts.

Americans know exactly who to blame for their unhappiness: Joe Biden. Republican commercials may pound this message home, but they don’t have to convince anyone that Democrats are to blame–they already know that.

You may have noticed that Biden, the Democrats, and the Left media are setting up for the loss by warning that if Republicans win the economy will take a turn for the worse. This is clearly a pointless exercise. People know exactly who to blame for making this mess, and nothing is going to change their mind.

If Republicans in Congress get their way, prices will go up and inflation will get worse.

It’s that simple.

— President Biden (@POTUS) October 16, 2022

Here is the shocker of the poll: after 6 years of relentless attacks, 2 impeachments, and 2 years of attempts to convince Americans that Donald Trump is a threat to Democracy itself Americans approve of Donald Trump more than any other politician in the country. His negatives are strong and set: nobody is going to change their mind about Trump, but the country is evenly divided about him.

47% of Americans approve, 47% disapprove. Net zero, which is far better than any Democrat other than Bernie Sanders, although Sanders’ approval overall is 5 points lower than Trump’s.

The national politician with the highest net approval? Mike Pence. I find that mildly surprising only because so many Americans know who he is. He was VP, and most Americans don’t pay much attention to VP except to make fun of them. Kamala Harris, by contrast, has a net approval rating of -10. Ouch. (Ron DeSantis is +6 and could be counted as a national figure these days, so good news for him!)

Biden has both lower overall approval than either Trump or Pence, but his net approval is underwater by 8 points. That is just deadly, electorally speaking.

Here’s where the real electoral poison can be found: the top issues that people care about. The top four clearly benefit Republicans, and it isn’t until issue five that “women’s rights” (read abortion) shows up. More than twice as many people name inflation as their top issue than women’s rights, meaning that the sole issue that Democrats are pounding in election commercials and messaging overall just doesn’t move many people’s votes. Those 17% of voters who name abortion/women’s rights as determinate of their votes are mostly Democrats anyway.

Put yourself in the position of a Democrat political consultant for a moment: what are you going to run on? The polls say your best issue is abortion, but they also say that most voters just don’t care that much compared to their finances collapsing, the border crisis, and skyrocketing crime.

It would drive you to drink, or perhaps call up Hunter Biden to find out how to enjoy endless nights of hookers and blow.

If they had a conscience (heh–they are political consultants, so no way) they would be telling their clients to update their resumé and their friends who are working for the politicians to consider moving out of DC for a while to save on housing costs. They would just resign themselves and take a nice vacation in Bali.

But no, they will cash the checks while looking for a rich person that they can convince to run for something in 2024. The results this November are baked into the cake already, unless Biden manages to blow up the world or something.

Voters also know who shares their concerns, and needless to say they agree with Republicans on what matters right now:

And they know Democrats don’t care about the same things. January 6th and Women’s rights? Voters ranked January 6th riots at #20 of their concerns, but see the Democrats laser focused on it and abortion. The economy? Voters see inflation and the economic decline as the most important issue for themselves, but 5th on the agenda of the Democrats.

Given these priorities, who do you think voters will go to the voting booth for?

Perhaps voters just won’t show at the polls? That could be the thing that saves the Democrats, right?

Well, no. Voter enthusiasm is running pretty high, with 61% saying they will definitely vote this election–which is 17 points higher than people who say they always vote. Meaning that a heck of a lot of people are itching to send a message to someone in politics, and the most likely someone is the man in the White House who is screwing everything up.

Now Harvard/Harris found that on the generic ballot the parties are tied at 50-50. But among likely voters the Republicans are up by a whopping 6%. That is quite a significant margin, and one that undoubtedly scares the daylights out of the Democrats.

And why the 6% split? Well, you have already figured it out. Voters trust Republicans on the issues that matter to them. Or, perhaps it is more accurate to say that they trust Republicans more than they trust Democrats, because–let’s face it–trusting politicians is a fool’s game.

Another issue that just kills the Democrats is crime. Harvard/Harris predicts that it is a sleeper issue in the election, and voters both believe that crime is increasing and that the cause is woke politicians. I would actually add a factor: Democrat COVID policies, which kicked teens out of school and literally thrust some into a life of crime. The Twin Cities has a carjacking crisis for the first time ever, and the carjackers are young teens who don’t even have licenses to drive because they are too young. Before COVID these kids were in school. Now they are out of the habit and looking for kicks, even though schools are back open.

Combine all these disparate data points to boil things down to a “platform,” or what the parties are doing and running on, and voters clearly prefer Republicans. This is hardly surprising given that all the issues favor Republicans, and voters are unhappy with what Democrats spend their time promoting. Voters agree with Republicans on the issues that matter, so they naturally lean that way.

Now to what the poll shows about what Harvard/Harris describe as “election dynamics,” and there are some stunners that must give Democrats nightmares:

Yes, you read that right. More voters believe that Trump was legitimately elected than do Biden was.

And, contrary to what the Democrats are selling, voters on the whole still believe the Supreme Court is legitimate. That indicates that Democrat arguments regarding expanding the Court are falling on deaf ears. It also means that the argument that “election deniers” are a threat to Democracy isn’t ringing true to most voters. It may motivate Democrat partisans, but absolutely nobody else. And attacks on the Court are probably turning off likely voters.

There is more in the poll, so I’ll leave you with this last bit of data. Voters understand that Biden is past it, and even unfit to be president. They know that something is seriously wrong in the head:

Now, add all this up and it is difficult to see how Democrats can survive in either the House or the Senate. The Senate is at least plausible, because people tend to have actual opinions about their Senator, while most only have the vaguest idea who their Congressman and don’t care much either. For Congress the candidate is almost a generic R or D, not a person with opinions that mean something to them.

But really, do you think that Senators in competitive districts can resist what clearly is going to be a Red tsunami? I don’t. Whatever you see in polling in these states, I would argue is just not a reliable indicator of how the votes will tally. Not necessarily because the polls are skewed (many are), but because when voters enter the booth they will probably be inclined to vote consistently rather than split tickets. There are ticket splitters, obviously, but most voters aren’t so discriminating. They are ticked, and want to send Biden and the Democrats a lesson.

If I were giving advice on what beverages to serve at election night parties, I would recommend champagne for Republicans and hemlock for Democrats. It will be that awful for the Dems.

UPDATED TO CLARIFY A POINT