Couldn’t hurt, right? This guy is a two-ton weight on his party’s back:

With less than four months until November’s #MidTerms, our data gathered during the second quarter of 2022 shows voters in 44 states are more likely to disapprove than approve of Biden’s job performance, up from 40 states in the first quarter. https://t.co/pPIQgxHUsz pic.twitter.com/unW2lFDCPF

— Morning Consult (@MorningConsult) July 24, 2022

Steven Isenberg makes the case today in WaPo that Joe should go and say so soon, before November.

First, and most important, the midterm elections this November would become about key issues and the quality of individual House and Senate candidates rather than the merits of Biden’s presidency and whether voters feel he should run again…

The plotting and the politicking of Democrats aspiring to the presidency has already begun. Unless Biden announces that he is not running for reelection, this quiet campaign against him will intensify — whether it comes from people who intend to challenge Biden in the primaries in 2024 or just to flex their muscles to discourage him from running again. This is fueled by his low standing in the polls on job performance and on desirability as the party’s 2024 nominee…

Why not direct all Biden’s strength to moving public opinion and Congress toward comity and achievement over the next two years? Biden stands a better chance of a favorable congressional result for the Democrats in November’s election, and of being able to pass legislation during the rest of his term, if the focus is on the House and Senate candidates and their positions on the issues. His age, and his presidency, would be greatly reduced as an issue this fall.

In a normal midterm cycle it’d be nutty for a president to announce beforehand that he won’t run for reelection in the following cycle. His party would be demoralized by the sudden leadership vacuum; its attention would be redirected towards the coming presidential primary battle; and the president himself would instantly acquire lame-duck status, destroying his chances of moving legislation in the next two years.

But this isn’t a normal midterm cycle. It’s a near certainty that Republicans will win control of one or both houses of Congress, which means Biden’s agenda is dead anyway. And voters in his party are less likely to be demoralized by the leadership vacuum than to be energized by it. Remember, various polls recently show that a majority of Democrats hope he doesn’t run again in 2024. Between his age and the dismal year the country has experienced, the prospect of fresh blood in the next cycle might put a spring in liberals’ step.

I think Isenberg’s right that Biden’s retirement would change the dynamic of the midterms. Voters typically treat midterm elections as a referendum on the president, a way to signal their displeasure with the administration and to urge it to change course. By announcing that he won’t run again, Biden would weaken that impulse. If voters know that change is coming in 2024 no matter what, some might not feel obliged to turn out in November to demand it.

Symbolically decapitating the party would therefore disrupt the “referendum” dynamic and turn the election into more of a choice between the parties, giving the average Democratic congressman or senator a better chance of winning. If, for instance, Georgia’s swing voters go into the booth with a “Let’s go, Brandon” mindset, they’re probably going to elect Herschel Walker. But if Brandon is suddenly in the rearview mirror and they get a clean choice between Walker and Raphael Warnock on their respective merits as candidates, I like Warnock’s chances in that environment.

The question isn’t whether Biden retiring would help Democrats. The question is whether it would help so much as to be a gamechanger, as that’s the only reason that might be compelling enough to convince him to hurry his decision about 2024. I’m skeptical that it would. The reality of persistent inflation means most voters will be in a “Let’s go, Brandon” mood this fall no matter what’s happening in Washington. Is it worth it to Biden to announce his retirement early merely to turn a red tsunami into a red wave?

It *would* be interesting, though, to hold a midterm after Biden has announced his retirement and Trump has announced he’s running again, as that might turn Election Day into a referendum on the former president more so than the current one. Charlie Cook:

Yet there might be one silver lining for Democrats on the distant horizon. Should former President Trump decide, against the advice of nearly every Republican strategist alive, to announce his candidacy before the midterm elections in November, he might energize Democratic voters enough to minimize their losses at the margins. I am not sure it would save one or both majorities, but it certainly has the potential to have a greater impact than abortion, guns, and Jan. 6 combined…

Clearly Democrats need to make this election about anything but Biden and the state and direction of the economy. Can Trump provide the change of venue that Democrats so desperately need?

I’m in the minority among the commentariat in that I suspect Trump announcing before the midterms won’t do much to affect the results. But if he were to jump in and Biden were to jump out? Hmmmmmmmmm.

Exit question: What if Sleepy Joe offered voters a bargain in which he promises not to run again *if* they give him two more years of Democratic majorities in the House and Senate? “Retire Joe Biden: Vote Democratic in 2022!”