The easiest way to demonstrate the stupidity of this effort by Democrats is to share this clip from yesterday’s House Judiciary Committee. Remember before you watch that the key test for whether a weapon is protected by the Second Amendment under the Supreme Court’s decision in Heller is whether it’s in common use for lawful purposes.

Bishop: "Is there any Democrat that would dispute that this bill would ban weapons that are in common use?"

Nadler: "That's the point of the bill."

Bishop: "So it is the point of the bill to ban guns that are in common use?"

Nadler: "The problem is they are in common use." pic.twitter.com/ya1snfokaM

— Greg Price (@greg_price11) July 20, 2022

The Dems aren’t sending their best. With any luck, Jerry Nadler will be headed off into retirement soon at the hands of one of his colleagues.

I wrote last week about the mystifying effort by Pelosi and her caucus to pass a new ban on assault weapons during the waning months of their majority. Why mystifying? For starters, because it has zero chance of passing the Senate. Just ask the man who recently spearheaded gun legislation that *did* end up passing the upper chamber:

So-called “assault rifles” are semi-automatic firearms. Firing mechanism essentially the same as a semi-automatic pistol and shotgun. They should be honest: Democrats want to disarm law abiding citizens while doing little about crime and undermining the police. https://t.co/6FXfBox9HG

— Senator John Cornyn (@JohnCornyn) July 21, 2022

Typically you don’t ask a vulnerable House majority to take a very tricky vote on legislation that not only won’t beat a filibuster in the Senate but probably won’t get even 50 votes. But Pelosi and her team seem hellbent on trying to do it, no doubt to the great discomfort of endangered purple-district Dems like Elissa Slotkin:

Rep. Elissa Slotkin's (D., Mich.) office tells me she plans to vote for the "assault weapons" ban if it gets a floor vote.

— Stephen Gutowski (@StephenGutowski) July 21, 2022

Slotkin’s new district leans Republican by five points. Do you suppose there any AR-15 owners in Michigan?

Dems have something to lose and little to gain by pushing this go-nowhere bill, in other words. The best I can do to concoct a theory for why they’re moving forward with it is because they think it’ll cheer their disillusioned base and maybe woo back some suburban voters who have been leaning GOP. But how re-illusioned will progressives be when they see the legislation laughed out of the Senate? And Democrats already have issues like abortion and gay marriage to support culture-war appeals to suburbanites. An assault-weapons ban is a needless hot potato for the centrists in their caucus.

So go figure that, per Punchbowl, Pelosi still doesn’t have the votes she needs to pass it.

The bill could come up for a floor vote as early as next week. Yet as of now, Democratic leaders don’t have the votes to pass it. We have covered the issue extensively the last few days. Pelosi and her leadership team can only lose four votes on the floor, and they can’t count on any GOP support, especially for the rule laying out the floor debate. Currently, Democrats don’t even have enough votes for that rule.

There’s already four Democrats expected to vote against the bill: Reps. Jared Golden (Maine), Henry Cuellar (Texas), Kurt Schrader (Oregon) and Ron Kind (Wis.). And several other Democrats, including O’Halleran and Rep. Vicente Gonzalez (Texas), remain undecided or non-committal​.

Vulnerable Democrats, especially those in the toughest districts, are desperate to see action on their priorities ahead of the August recess. And they’re privately frustrated that leadership is focused on moving an assault weapons bill – something that won’t become law – when other pressing issues remain unaddressed in their minds.

That’s another risk of pushing a bill like this one. What’s the cost of failure? How demoralized will liberals be if even a House majority controlled by Democrats can’t find the votes to get it through? “This is a bill that destroyed the Democrats in ‘94. I guess, do we really have a death wish list as Democrats?” said Schrader, speaking to reporters this week.

Pelosi may have an ace in the hole, though. Remember this guy?

Congressman Chris Jacobs goes on the record saying he would support a series of gun control measures, including banning access to semiautomatic rifles like AR-15s, restricting magazine capacity to 10 round, & raising minimum age to 21 for firearm purchase. (1/3) pic.twitter.com/9uMFYsb1jZ

— Ashley Rowe (@TheAshleyRowe) May 27, 2022

Jacobs’s district includes Buffalo, the site of the supermarket massacre earlier this year. The pushback he got from local Republicans after he gave the statement above was so intense that he announced his retirement a week later.

I know you remember this guy:

Adam Kinzinger: “I have opposed a ban [on AR-15s] fairly recently. I think I’m open to a ban now.” pic.twitter.com/gF54DPW5Z6

— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) May 29, 2022

Could Kinzinger and Jacobs save the day for Pelosi? It’s hard for me to believe that either of them would cast the deciding votes to help Dems get to a majority on the bill. It’s equally hard to imagine Pelosi putting the bill on the floor knowing that its fate might depend on the support of retiring Republicans. If Jacobs and Kinzinger get cold feet, she’ll be humiliated as the bill goes down in full view of the entire country.

As the icing on the cake here, multiple polls recently have showed that banning assault weapons has gotten less popular over time. This issue simply isn’t as much of a winner for Democrats as it used to be. Stephen Gutowski:

Support for the policy has now fallen below 50 percent, according to a poll from Quinnipiac University released on Wednesday. That represents a slight drop from the previous all-time low for the policy set in Quinnipiac’s June poll. It is the third survey from a prominent pollster to identify a drop in support for a ban after the Robb Elementary School shooting in Uvalde, Texas, on May 24th.

The ban still enjoyed a plurality of support, with 49 percent of those polled in favor while 45 percent were opposed. However, it is the only gun-control policy polled in the wake of the Uvalde shooting that has lost support even as support for tightening gun restrictions has increased.

Yesterday the bill’s author, David Cicilline, boasted that “When the assault weapons ban comes to the floor, it will pass. When something is supported by two-thirds of the American people, it will save lives, it’s hard to understand what is [politically] difficult.” But it’s not supported by two-thirds anymore! Dems are pushing this legislation seemingly without even grasping the current politics of it.

I’ll leave you with this. That is … not what a stabilizing brace does.

This is just plain factually inaccurate. As were many outrageous claims made in today's hearing. https://t.co/psGPaSsEva

— Stephen Gutowski (@StephenGutowski) July 21, 2022