I can’t tell if this spin is pathetic or tragic. If he really believes it, tragic.

If he doesn’t, pathetic.

He’s talking about the bombshell Times poll from a few days ago that showed him sinking to 33 percent approval. When the Times asked Democratic voters whether they want to stick with Biden in 2024 or go in a different direction, the result was clear — to a degree unprecedented in recent American history:

Every demographic in that poll, including African-American Democrats, was more likely than not to say they prefer fresh blood in 2024. Aaron Blake went looking through old polls to see if he could find another modern U.S. president whose party wanted him out as nominee during his first term, and he couldn’t. The closest he came was Bill Clinton in January 1995, fresh off a midterm drubbing that left the House in Republican hands for the first time in 40 years. Even then, a majority of 56 percent wanted to renominate Clinton. Only 37 percent preferred a new candidate in 1996.

American voters understand the advantages of incumbency and instinctively feel loyalty to a president of their own party. The fact that Biden is upside down to the extent that he is reflects not just how miserable the past year has been but how little his own party trusts him to be fit for a second term as he turns 80 this year.

Which brings us to this pathetic-tragic expression of denial yesterday.

“You’re all the same.” pic.twitter.com/BhJtkhl5th

— R.J. Kassam (@RaheemKassam) July 13, 2022

It’s true that 92 percent of Democrats told the Times that they’d vote for him if he runs again — and if his opponent is Trump. But even those numbers are cringy in context. Biden leads Trump by a mere eight points among voters aged 18-29 and by just three points among Latinos. African-American support tops out at a measly 71 percent and he actually trails Trump by two against independents. That’s the best he can do against an opponent who tried to overturn the last election and whom many Americans believe committed a crime in making January 6 possible. Imagine how poorly he’d do against a generic Republican like, say, Glenn Youngkin who doesn’t scare the hell out of swing voters.

Leaving Trump aside, it’s embarrassing for any major politician in our hyperpartisan age to boast about winning 92 percent of their own base. Any normie candidate could manage that, particularly when matched against a figure as polarizing as Trump. All it establishes is that, yes, facing the prospect of a second Trump term, nearly all Dems will swallow hard and vote for Biden or whoever else is at the top of the ticket. But what about indies? And how much better might a more popular figure, like Michelle Obama, do to unite the party than Biden would?

I’ve always assumed that Biden understands the reason he got 81 million votes in 2020 was one part Bidenmania among the electorate to 20 parts fear of a Trump second term. Watching that clip makes me wonder.

Lefty Ed Kilgore believes the party is stuck with him in 2024 for the simple reason that there’s no elegant, non-destructive way to push aside a president who wants to run again. Progressives could try to recruit a primary challenger to Biden, but (1) Bernie has said he won’t do it, (2) that challenger would almost certainly lose, and (3) the damage done to Biden in the primary would likely sink him in November, paving the way for a second Trump term. Even the most plausible potential challengers have major liabilities as general-election candidates, as these two head-spinning paragraphs from a WaPo story on Gavin Newsom illustrate:

Yet there are Democrats who say Newsom’s criticism of the party is counterproductive and fear centrist voters would view him as a polarizing avatar of coastal blue state elitism. As one Democratic pollster put it, the Republican attack ads would write themselves. The pollster, who like others interviewed for this story, spoke on the condition of anonymity to be more candid, also suggested that female leaders should take center stage on issues like abortion.

“Nooooo!” groaned Samantha Sears, 33, when asked at an abortion rights protest here this month if Biden should run for reelection. She said she liked Newsom — “I have said in our house that he would be a great president” — but echoed others who don’t see a heterosexual White male as the best face for a diverse party. “He’s a cis, White, hetero man,” she said, a “My Body My Choice” sign under her arm.

Newsom is too far left for nomie voters and has too many of the wrong genes for lefties. Not promising.

Kilgore speculates that Biden’s chances of a second nomination could actually *improve* somewhat after the midterms despite the bloodbath everyone’s expecting. For one thing, there are fewer competitive seats out there than you may think:

NEW: after redistricting, the number of hyper-competitive House seats (Cook PVI℠ between D+3 and R+3) has declined from 51 to 45, our lowest count ever. Full report: https://t.co/AffIOzAvbV pic.twitter.com/9GiB63pcoO

— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) July 13, 2022

If Republicans “only” flip 25, does that amount to underperforming? How about if Dems hold the Senate thanks to terrible candidate selection by Republicans? Would that mean Biden is less of a liability than everyone suspects?

The Times has another new poll out today showing the generic ballot tighter than one might assume given Biden’s piss-poor polling. It’s 44/43 in favor of the GOP among likely voters, a solid sign of a red wave but maybe not the mega-tsunami we’d anticipate when the ruling party has an anchor around its ankles like President 33 Percent. Dems are running up the score with white college grads, a sign of how the electorate is realigning and evidence that mass shootings and the end of Roe may be cementing Dem gains among suburban voters. But the working-class shift towards the GOP is also on display, to a startling degree in some cases:

Just 74 percent of the voters who backed Mr. Biden in the 2020 election, but who said the economy or inflation was the most important problem, said they preferred Democratic control of Congress. In contrast, Democrats were the choice of 87 percent of Biden voters who said abortion or guns was the most important issue.

The economy may be helping Republicans most among Hispanic voters, who preferred Democrats to control Congress, 41-38. Although the sample size is small, the finding is consistent with the longer-term deterioration in Democratic support among the group. Hispanics voted for Democrats by almost a 50-point margin in the 2018 midterms, according to data from Pew Research, then President Donald J. Trump made surprising gains with them in 2020.

Pretty straightforward. If you’re working class, your concerns are inflation, inflation, and inflation. If you’re higher-income, you can afford to prioritize abortion rights. In fact, says the Times, thanks to consolidation among educated voters and defections among Hispanics, Biden’s party now does better among white college grads than it does among nonwhites. Add “the president who lost Latinos for Democrats” to Joe’s presidential resume.