They’re not retreating, they’re advancing in the opposite direction.

Russia’s deputy defense minister says Moscow has decided to “fundamentally cut back military activity in the direction of Kyiv and Chernigiv” in order to “increase mutual trust for future negotiations to agree and sign a peace deal with Ukraine.” pic.twitter.com/2qDYOzAzDp

— max seddon (@maxseddon) March 29, 2022

Their exact words, per WaPo, were that Russia will “drastically reduce” the number of troops around those two cities “to increase mutual trust and create the necessary conditions for further negotiations.” The Ukrainian translation:

Russia says “military activities in the Kyiv and Chernihiv areas will be reduced for the sake of mutual trust”.
Interpreting this for you guys into the human language: “We have been smashed in the face, so we need to buy some time to redeploy troops to Izium and Donbas.”

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) March 29, 2022

I know what you’re thinking: “I don’t trust the Russians to keep their word.” I don’t either, even though it makes strategic sense for them to pull back from Kiev and Chernihiv at this point. Both cities are in northern Ukraine, where Russia has had the most trouble advancing. No one believes they’ll be in a position anytime soon to encircle Kiev; on the contrary, Russian troops have lost ground in the Kiev suburbs over the past week. If the Russian military was serious on Friday when it said that it would focus on “liberating” Ukraine’s disputed eastern territories going forward, it stands to reason that they’d begin to redeploy troops from the anemic northern front to the east.

But it’s reeeeeally hard to trust the Russian government. Observers are wondering whether the “retreat” from Kiev and Chernihiv is just an operational pause to regroup and then resume the offensive:

This is a legitimate possibility. The Russians may utilize any pause to regroup, resupply, and try to repair their battered frontline units. https://t.co/bvqDx4xwoH

— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) March 29, 2022

“Drastically reducing” Russian troops in the north might also create a problem for Russia in the east. If northern cities like Kiev and Chernihiv are suddenly no longer under threat, the Ukrainian troops defending them will be free to follow the Russians east and take the fight to the Donbas:

Consequently, we are likely to see consolidation around Kyiv and an attempt by Russian mil to fix Ukrainian forces there, while shifting the bulk of available fighting power to Donbas. I will make an updated thread to pull my views together on where I think we are in this war.

— Michael Kofman (@KofmanMichael) March 29, 2022

So, yeah, it’s possible the Russians are lying about a retreat in order to buy themselves time. But … time for what? Strategist Phillips O’Brien believes there’s no way realistically that Russia can mount a serious new offensive against Kiev:

If the Russians are pulling back from Kyiv (which looks likely), coming back will be very very hard without basically societal mobilization. They will probably divert all remaining combat worthy forces to try and consolidate Donbass and East.

— Phillips P. OBrien (@PhillipsPOBrien) March 29, 2022

The Donbass concentration means one fundamental thing–this war will be ended by a negotiation, and the Ukrainian government is in a very strong position. Russia cant dictate.

— Phillips P. OBrien (@PhillipsPOBrien) March 29, 2022

If Russia’s out of gas in the north, they might as well redeploy east and try to take what they can get. Even if the Ukrainians follow them, Putin will lobby western leaders to lean on Zelensky to end the war. “You still have Kiev, Lviv, and Odessa. Do you really want to see thousands more people die and risk this war spiraling into WMD simply to hold onto Luhansk and Donetsk?”

There’s evidence on the ground that the withdrawal has begun:

First signs that some Russian troops are indeed retreating from the Kyiv direction. Large numbers of BMDs with Russian and VDV flags were spotted today on their way from the Ukrainian border to Belarus' Rechitsa and Gomel where they were loaded onto railway platforms. pic.twitter.com/6B5qTsgFRq

— Tadeusz Giczan 🇺🇦 (@TadeuszGiczan) March 29, 2022

For what it’s worth, U.S. officials tell CNN they believe the Russians really are redeploying. It’s not just hype from Putin’s deputies to insincerely signal some interest in deescalation:

The Russian forces now pulling back in some areas of the north will focus on gains in the south and east. The US is already observing these movements underway, including Russian Battalion Tactical Groups leaving the surrounding areas around Kyiv…

The US assesses Russia will cover their retreat with air and artillery bombardment of the capital, one of the officials said. US officials caution that Russia could always reverse again if the battle conditions allow…

In the US view, this is not a short-term adjustment to regroup, but a longer-term move as Russia comes to grips with failure to advance in the north. The official said one consequence the US is concerned about is keeping the European allies unified on economic pressure and military support as Washington expects some of them to press Ukraine to accept a peace deal to end the fighting.

That’s what Putin’s counting on. The moment Russia makes a move towards deescalation, like scaling back operations in the north, he expects European leaders to begin twisting Ukrainian arms to make concessions. Having Russia say “we’re ready for peace” as it squats on the Donbas and the “land bridge” created by Mariupol in the south will leave Zelensky in a terrible predicament. Does he stick to his guns about refusing territorial concessions and try to push Russia out of Luhansk and Donetsk? That’ll mean many more casualties on both sides, and it’ll give Putin an opportunity — a farcical one, but still — to claim that Ukraine is the aggressor now. They’re the party that refuses to end the war, after all.

There’s another reason to believe the Russian withdrawal from the north is real: The clock might be ticking on them in the south. Although they appear to have finally taken control of Mariupol in the southeast, Ukrainian troops are trying to push the Russians out of Kherson in the central southern part of the country, north of Crimea. If they succeed, Russia’s “corridor” between the Donbas and Crimea will be threatened. So Putin may be calculating that now is the moment to cut his losses in the north, go all-in on preserving his gains in the east and south, and then blow the whistle for a time out and a peace offer. “Give us the territory we hold and we’ll withdraw everywhere else. You can even join the EU if you want.”

The longer the war lasts, the greater the risk that Russia loses control of Kherson. Moscow may want to wrap this up as soon as possible.

In the meantime, though, they’re going to continue to bomb the hell out of Ukrainian cities to remind Zelensky what the price is for continuing the war. The latest major attack was in the southern city of Mykolaiv, which Russia had been hoping to occupy and then use as a base for operations against Odessa. It hasn’t worked out for them, and so:

Just as in Kharkiv on March 1, Russia today destroyed the regional government building in Mykolaiv with a cruise missile. Governor Kim was late to the office. Says 8 civilians, 3 military still missing as the rescue mission is under way. We were in this office not so long ago. pic.twitter.com/UNzfv5fKJQ

— Yaroslav Trofimov (@yarotrof) March 29, 2022

Mykolaiv Governor Vitaliy Kim, who like Zelensky has become a defiant and brave wartime leader, appearing in public and regularly posting selfie videos, says Russia striking the regional govt office is a sign Moscow knows it can’t capture the city so it’s trying to destroy it. pic.twitter.com/JqbvP5jFpr

— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) March 29, 2022

Who knows if the bombing won’t get even more ferocious over the next few weeks to project “strength” now that Russia has confessed weakness by withdrawing from the north? I hope the White House and EU leaders are huddling with Zelensky to figure out how they’re going to play it if Putin suddenly asks for peace and a “modest” annexation of territory in eastern and southern Ukraine. Because that may be coming sooner than we think.