We can’t assume too much from a few news clips. But there are numerous tea leaves from the past few days suggesting that, at worst, China is pivoting away from Russia on the war and towards neutrality. A sample:

— On Monday, the Chinese ambassador to Ukraine met with authorities in Lviv to say that China “will respect the path chosen by Ukrainians because this is the sovereign right of every nation.” He also promised Chinese help with Ukrainian economic development after the war.

— The same day, Jake Sullivan held “intense” talks for seven hours with a Chinese official in Rome warning Beijing of consequences if it rescued Russia’s war in Ukraine by supplying Putin with military and economic aid.

— Last night, a German paper reported that the Russian foreign minister was en route to China for a visit when his plane mysteriously made an about-face and returned to Russia. It’s unclear why, but some speculate that Chinese officials may have decided they didn’t want the bad optics of meeting with him at the moment.

— This morning, the White House announced that Biden will speak with Xi Jinping directly tomorrow about the prospect of China providing Russia with aid.

— Today, a change has been detected in the tenor of Chinese media’s coverage of the war. CGTN is a state-run network with chapters in the west, a sort of Chinese version of RT. They ran multiple segments about Ukrainian civilians being killed within the past 24 hours and made no bones about who was responsible.

Russian troops have killed at least 10 civilians standing in line for bread in Chernihiv, a city in northern Ukraine, according to a Ukrainian public broadcaster and the U.S. Embassy in Kyiv. pic.twitter.com/KEXH9V4OJL

— CGTN America (@cgtnamerica) March 17, 2022

Residents and emergency workers at the site of a badly bombed residential building in the eastern Ukrainian city of Kharkiv ran for cover as Russian jets flew over and dropped bombs nearby, according to Reuters. pic.twitter.com/1EPw8dKdeU

— CGTN America (@cgtnamerica) March 17, 2022

CGTN also flagged Tony Blinken’s statement this afternoon accusing Russia of war crimes:

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Thursday the State Department is investigating possible war crimes committed by Russia in Ukraine. pic.twitter.com/F2o4VSGhg0

— CGTN America (@cgtnamerica) March 17, 2022

Maybe this is a small concession from Beijing to the U.S., adding some anti-Russia coverage to Chinese media that’s aimed at a western audience while quietly maintaining a strict pro-Russia line in domestic Chinese media.

But no, apparently the broadcasts back home have taken a turn as well:

guys, the shift on Ukraine has been visible in core Chinese media too – and in propaganda instructions – it's not just a foreign facing thing https://t.co/Nzrntqqj3S

— James Palmer (@BeijingPalmer) March 17, 2022

Twitter’s translation of the Chinese tweet linked by Palmer reads in part, “CCTV suddenly stopped being the sounding board for the Russian army, and became the sounding box for the Ukrainian army, and found that Russia was about to end? Is Sino-Russian relationship as strong as a rock made in China?”

Has the “no limits” partnership hit a limit already, just six weeks after it was declared?

If Russia’s war were going well, if COVID were in full retreat, Xi might be in a position to hang up on Biden and give Putin whatever he needs. But the war isn’t going well. And COVID not only isn’t in retreat, it’s threatening China to a degree not seen there since early 2020. The new lockdowns are a drag on the Chinese economy and a major outbreak that races out of control would threaten the Chinese health-care system.

Shanghai is really on edge right now over accelerating Covid cases; I haven’t seen everyone this nervous since February 2020… a lot of rumors are swirling amidst the confirmed news that schools are now closed, flights are being diverted, and public events are getting canceled

— Dan Wang (@danwwang) March 11, 2022

In Beijing everyone is talking about it too, and already meetings and concerts are being cancelled or transferred to video. I've been told that two of my physical presentations next week must go online because attendees will not be allowed into the buildings. https://t.co/J3c34TLJaj

— Michael Pettis (@michaelxpettis) March 11, 2022

Calling this now: Omicron breaking through in China will be a double whammy for global trade and therefore inflation.

China just declared a 7-day lockdown in Shenzhen — home of one of the world's largest ports.https://t.co/5KhOESgbbi

— Christopher Mims 🤌 (@mims) March 13, 2022

With Congress scrambling to prepare sanctions for China if they go all-in with Putin on Ukraine, Xi may have concluded that this is a bad time to pick a new fight with the entire western world:

Sentiment is rising for so-called secondary sanctions on any country or entity that helps Russia evade sanctions. On Thursday, Republican Senator Marco Rubio introduced a bill specifically aimed at Chinese financial institutions that conduct transactions with Russian entities through any alternative to the SWIFT financial messaging system.

“We cannot allow China to become a safe haven for Russian firms seeking to avoid international sanctions,” Rubio said in a statement. “My bill would make it nearly impossible for Chinese banks to access the U.S. financial system if they choose to transact with Russian banks using Chinese or Russian financial messaging systems.”

Meanwhile, at the UN this afternoon:

#UPDATE An ambassador tells AFP that Moscow canceled the vote on its "humanitarian" resolution after it failed to secure co-sponsorship of the draft text from China and India pic.twitter.com/o49vhQF1kT

— AFP News Agency (@AFP) March 17, 2022

Vladimir Putin has very few friends left. He may have lost another, his most important one, in the past 24 hours.

We’ll see what Xi has to say to Biden tomorrow. Will he take the advice of that Shanghai think tank I wrote about a few days ago, seizing the opportunity to begin repairing relations with the west while cutting loose a pariah state? Or does the “no limits” partnership truly have no limits? Never underestimate one autocrat’s willingness to do something stupid out of sympathy for another’s show of ruthlessness.

I’ll leave you with this, a taste of what Russian state media is airing nowadays.

Russian state TV also jumped on comments by Republican congressman Madison Cawthorn, who called Zelenskyy “a thug”. That got played over and over. pic.twitter.com/VdC2AG48NQ

— Raf Sanchez (@rafsanchez) March 17, 2022