Hopeful news about the surprising effectiveness of Ukraine’s resistance continues to pop up online but it can’t be good that Russian forces have reached Kiev on day two. Volodomyr Zelensky is already warning western leaders that they might not see him again alive. The outcome of this war is certain, at least during the invasion stage. The insurgency stage might be a different matter.

The only way Ukraine can “win” the invasion stage is to win the battle for international public opinion by displaying uncommon valor in its own defense. The more heroic the Ukrainians are in defying Russian occupation, the more brutal and repulsive Putin seems by comparison. His self-serving lie that Russians and Ukrainians are one people and therefore Moscow is entitled to rule looks more absurd every time a Ukrainian shows bravery in resisting.

They were brave yesterday on Snake Island. Ed mentioned the incident in an earlier post but it’s worth listening to the exchange:

I can't believe that this is real life pic.twitter.com/DGtDR9IASy

— Volodymyr Zelenskyy Stan 🇬🇧 🇺🇦 (@OneNationCon) February 24, 2022

All 13 defenders on the island were killed, making the episode a microcosm of the wider war. Ukraine can’t win but they can impress upon the world in dramatic ways that many prefer death to subjugation by Russia.

Case in point:

Vitaly Skakun is hailed as a hero after sacrificing his life to blow up the Henichesky Bridge.

The bridge was mined but a Russian column was advancing and there was no time to detonate it remotely.

Skakun radioed his unit and told them he would do it manually, saying goodbye. pic.twitter.com/6gqIFxlc01

— Visegrád 24 🇨🇿🇭🇺🇵🇱🇸🇰 (@visegrad24) February 25, 2022

Here’s another incident that’s circulated widely. No death in this one but great courage all the same:

English translation pic.twitter.com/AaxOxwXv4l

— K² (@_khaaan) February 24, 2022

Ukrainian politicians have also risen to the occasion, keen to show defiance despite knowing that they’re marked for death. That begins with Zelensky, whom Russia intends to replace with a puppet ruler. He could bug out and claim to lead a government in exile but he’s intent on staying and dying if need be rather than flee in fear:

President @ZelenskyyUa says he is staying in Ukraine. He says he has intel that he is Russia’s top target, and his family is target number 2 for Putin pic.twitter.com/pQcBEpV1b4

— Logan Ratick (@Logan_Ratick) February 24, 2022

Michael Weiss put it well: “Zelensky is becoming a Western statesman whose greatest contribution may yet be showing how much more ‘West’ Ukraine is than a lot of European countries.” The more impressive Zelensky becomes in his crisis leadership, the more of an international outrage it’ll be when Putin has him killed or imprisoned. Whether that’s a strategic calculation on Zelensky’s part or just instinctive courage at work, he’s making Putin’s ugly war look uglier by the moment.

You might recognize this guy. He used to be heavyweight champion of the world before retiring and entering politics, eventually becoming mayor of Kiev. He’s ready to die too:

Mayor of Kyiv Vitali Klitschko defending his country 🇺🇦 #IStandWithUkraine #SlavaUkraini pic.twitter.com/0cOHOBVIoy

— Natia Seskuria (@nseskuria) February 25, 2022

So is Petro Poroshenko. Poroshenko was president of Ukraine before losing to Zelensky in the 2019 election. He’s got his gun and is stationed in the streets of Kiev:

“How long do you think you can hold out?”

“Forever.”

Former Ukrainian President @poroshenko takes up a Kalashnikov rifle alongside civilian defense forces as he speaks to @JohnBerman from the streets of Kyiv. pic.twitter.com/jxGl6BKgZR

— CNN (@CNN) February 25, 2022

Many locals are also preparing to fight. This message from Ukraine’s ministry of defense reportedly reads, “Make Molotov cocktails, neutralize the occupier!”

❗️увага

На Оболоні ворожа ДРГ.
Просимо громадян повідомляти про пересування техніки!
Виготовляти коктейлі «Молотова», знешкоджувати окупанта!
Мирним мешканцям – бути обережними! Не покидати оселі!

— Defence of Ukraine (@DefenceU) February 25, 2022

Citizens are arming up, some of them reportedly over 60:

Weapons are being distributed to #Ukrainians volunteering to fight the Russian attack pic.twitter.com/z3R5myQQIf

— Michael A. Horowitz (@michaelh992) February 25, 2022

Meanwhile, the military is in position to defend the capital:

This is Kyiv pic.twitter.com/Tzjg5bxopW

— Ben Judah (@b_judah) February 25, 2022

Are any of these heroics actually slowing the Russian advance? Maybe. Last night the UK’s defense ministry assessed the state of battle and declared that “It is unlikely that Russia has achieved its planned Day 1 military objectives. Ukrainian forces have presented fierce resistance across all axes of Russia’s advance.” U.S. officials agree:

"We do assess that there is greater resistance by the Ukrainians than the Russians expected," a senior defense official tells NBC News. "They are fighting for their country."

Adds that Russians have not yet succeeded in taking over any population centers.

— Adam Weinstein (@AdamWeinstein) February 25, 2022

Whether that’s propaganda aimed at undermining Russia or an honest account of the state of play is unclear. No one thinks Russia will be unable to take Kiev, though. The question is what price they’ll have to pay to do it.

It was only a few weeks ago that we were warned Moscow was preparing elaborate false-flag operations to justify an invasion. At this stage, though, Putin seems to have dispensed with any vaguely plausible pretext for the war and is resorting to crude smears like this:

Putin describes Ukraine’s government as “a gang of drug addicts” and calls on the country’s forces to surrender pic.twitter.com/OseH9EaFuR

— Evan Gershkovich (@evangershkovich) February 25, 2022

It’s now a battle of public opinion between Ukrainian valor and the tsar mumbling about liberating the country from drug addicts. Before this is done, he may yet talk himself into getting Russia kicked out of the SWIFT system. Germany seems to be coming around:

GERMAN FINANCE MINISTER SAYS WE ARE OPEN TO CUTTING RUSSIA OFF SWIFT

— *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) February 25, 2022

I’ll leave you with this, another viral clip that makes for a nice contrast with what’s coming out of the Ukrainian side.

Barbaric Russians run over a car of a civilian in Kyiv pic.twitter.com/C3j5CsLnrN

— Mykhailo Golub (@golub) February 25, 2022