Congrats to Mitt, who’s been waiting 10 years to use that line and finally got the opportunity in the grimmest of circumstances.

There’s good news on a dark day, though. This statement that he issued last night turns out to be far more representative of opinion among Washington Republicans, including some aligned with Trump, than the anti-anti-Russia nationalist view is.

pic.twitter.com/1sVNk4RiJa

— Mitt Romney (@MittRomney) February 24, 2022

Two days ago I wrote about the three camps within the GOP. One is the old-school hawks like Romney who genuinely believe in supporting western-aligned liberal democracies. The second is the nationalist ideologues (or pretend ideologues like J.D. Vance) who insist that the U.S. has no interest in checking a fascist regime’s westward expansion into Europe. Most of them say that their only concern is making sure American troops aren’t sacrificed to protect the territorial integrity of a far-off land but occasionally one will admit that they’re actually on Russia’s side. Like, say, this guy, who copped to it in 2019:

Tucker: "Why do I care what is going on in the conflict between Ukraine and Russia? I'm serious. Why shouldn't I root for Russia? Which by the way I am." pic.twitter.com/OQopoxPYD9

— nikki mccann ramírez (@NikkiMcR) November 26, 2019

The third camp is the “Never Democrat” Republicans, the people whose supreme duty is to find a way to dunk on Biden and advance the GOP’s electoral interests. Those people are destined to tilt pro-Ukraine in this conflict because the easiest dunk on Biden when a U.S. enemy is advancing is that he’s weak. And in order to call Biden weak here, you necessarily have to believe that Putin is an enemy and that stopping him would be a good thing, a sign of American strength. Even Trump in his pitiful comments a few days ago paying tribute to Putin’s “genius” was careful to say that Russia never would have taken Ukraine on his watch.

It’s anyone’s guess how large each camp is relative to the other (although it’s a safe bet that the third is much bigger than the other two). Republican politicians are so terrified of alienating MAGA voters, though, that one might have expected them to adopt the Tucker/Vance line that there’s no reason to quarrel with Putin. If that’s the direction right-wing populist influencers are headed, that’s the direction we’d normally anticipate “the fear caucus” in Congress to take.

But they’re not. Behold:

My statement on Russia's invasion of Ukraine: pic.twitter.com/EWa0i6I74Q

— Kevin McCarthy (@GOPLeader) February 24, 2022

🇺🇸🇺🇦

America stands with the people of Ukraine.

— Senate Republicans (@SenateGOP) February 24, 2022

Trump ally Elise Stefanik is also pro-Ukraine, although her statement amply demonstrates the logic of the “Never Democrat” camp that I described:

My statement on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine 👇 pic.twitter.com/lRwLHcWYlc

— Rep. Elise Stefanik (@RepStefanik) February 24, 2022

I was heartened by this one, a tweet from a man who was careful as a candidate not to offend Trumpy populists:

Putin’s invasion of Ukraine is an assault on a sovereign nation and will have devastating consequences for Ukrainian citizens. This senseless, unprovoked attack undermines democracy worldwide and we must hold Russia accountable. And we pray for the Ukrainian people and for peace.

— Governor Glenn Youngkin (@GovernorVA) February 24, 2022

And I’m surprised by this one:

Missouri GOP senator Josh Hawley calls for arming Ukraine and sanctioning Russia: "Russia’s brutal assault on Ukraine and invasion of its territory must be met with strong American resolve." pic.twitter.com/9H6bTrSykl

— John McCormack (@McCormackJohn) February 24, 2022

Hawley is probably the most nationalist Republican in the Senate. His only competition is Tom Cotton, really, and Cotton is a committed hawk. If anyone was going to take a Tucker-esque line towards the Russia/Ukraine conflict, it was Hawley. Yet here he is, sounding more like Romney. What gives?

It’s possible that all but the most devout nationalists in the Carlson mold sympathize with Ukraine’s plight, Hawley included. Zelensky gave an unexpectedly strong speech last night to rouse his country as the invasion began, one that circulated widely on American social media. Maybe Republicans who were considering taking the “America First” position watched this and ultimately gagged at the thought:

More likely, though, is that this comes down to electoral politics. Hawley and Stefanik are smart people and know that the next weeks and months will bring endless coverage on American television of innocent Ukrainians being pulverized by Russia. That’s a hard thing to have to shrug off every day. As much as their instinct is to pander to populist righties, they don’t want to be on the wrong side of an issue that might break 75/25.

Particularly if it would mean letting Biden argue that he, not the GOP, is the one showing “strength” during this episode.

I’m curious to see what sort of rhetoric we hear about Russia and Ukraine this weekend at CPAC. Jim Swift’s not wrong that the daytime speakers featuring traditional hawks like Marco Rubio might sound different from the evening MAGA programming:

The 3:50 PM show at CPAC is completely different than the 8 o'clock show.

Enjoy the veal and be sure to tip your waiter. pic.twitter.com/v7UTOmEs58

— Jim Swift (@JimSwiftDC) February 24, 2022

Ron DeSantis speaks this afternoon. Does he take a side or just ignore the subject? “In coming days every top Republican lawmaker will be asked about Trump praising Putin for the invasion,” predicts Patterico. “They will ignore Trump’s praise and instead focus on — and agree with — Trump’s statement that Putin would not have done this if Trump had won.” Right, that’s the “Never Democrats” position, refocusing the Ukraine debate on Biden’s weakness. It’s cynical in the sense that it’s more concerned with partisan point-scoring than with national unity against Putin. But at least it requires taking Ukraine’s side in the conflict, which we should regard as a moral victory.

I’ll leave you with the Ukrainian ambassador to the UN telling the Russians to their faces last night that they’re going to hell. I like the way one Twitter pal summarized the conflict: “Russia telling Ukraine ‘we are one people’ as it lobs missiles at it is the whole situation in a nutshell.”

Ukrainian Ambassador To Russian Ambassador: There is no purgatory for war criminals. They go straight to hell pic.twitter.com/JOFOT9Rzdb

— Acyn (@Acyn) February 24, 2022