It’s sufficiently rare that the U.S. intel community gets one right in a big spot that should we take a moment to acknowledge it.

Although, in fairness, they do have their moments.

The hot take last week among doves about American warnings of imminent war in Ukraine was that it was either another case of U.S. intelligence screwing the pooch or, more sinisterly, an example of the warmongering west running a propaganda scheme to goad Putin into a confrontation. I never grasped why the west would want to do that knowing what it would mean for energy prices, but in some quarters the quest to make Russia a victim of western expansionism rather than vice versa is eternal.

Some good-faith skeptics of the intel are acknowledging today that they underestimated Putin’s belligerence.

British and American intelligence were right all along. A lot of commentators – including me – thought they were being unduly alarmist. Sadly, they were entirely accurate.

— Daniel Hannan (@DanielJHannan) February 24, 2022

Czech President Miloš Zeman acknowledged that he mistakenly believed Vladimir Putin wasn’t “crazy enough” to attack Ukraine. He is now calling on the international community to isolate this “madman” and defend itself “not only with words but also with concrete measures.” (Meduza)

— Anders Åslund (@anders_aslund) February 24, 2022

Others may need a little goading to ‘fess up that they underestimated it:

Here's Taibbi & Katrina vanden Heuvel talking just two days ago about the supposed media "hysteria" about the notion that Putin might attack all of Ukraine. https://t.co/IbspstWD9W https://t.co/FFGJh649yV

— Patterico (@Patterico) February 24, 2022

Others will probably never admit it, preferring to parse terms like “invasion” instead:

The problem is that the CIA told the US media to tell everyone that they knew exactly what Putin was saying and deciding, and that he had decided on a full invasion of Ukraine, so they have to call it an "invasion" otherwise this whole media/government act will seem like a fraud: https://t.co/cjiQ4Vr3x4

— Glenn Greenwald (@ggreenwald) February 23, 2022

To put in perspective for you the scale of Russia’s attacks last night, gaze upon this map bearing in mind that — allegedly — Moscow’s chief concern is securing the independence of the two small disputed regions in the east:

Here is a map of all the verified Russian attacks on Ukraine as of 3:30 am last night. Just a reminder that just a day and a half ago, Putin was claiming he was just sending in “peacekeeping” forces to defend the area circled in yellow. pic.twitter.com/f7byy9WARK

— AG (@AGHamilton29) February 24, 2022

I mean, it looks like an “invasion,” no?

Russian tanks rolling past @fpleitgenCNN while he's live on air. "That is the road leading to Ukraine." pic.twitter.com/N02h0whaHQ

— Kaitlan Collins (@kaitlancollins) February 24, 2022

It certainly amounts to an “attack”:

More footage of the apartment block that was hit by Russian heavy artillery in Chuhuiv, south of Kharkiv. You can see the utter devastation caused by this indiscriminate attack on a clearly civilian target.

This is a clear and unambiguous war crime.pic.twitter.com/mmCG58yUeo

— Jimmy (@JimmySecUK) February 24, 2022

Follow this long thread for videos of the carnage last night.

One way to knock U.S. intel this morning is to say that they may have gotten the big picture right but they were wrong on the timing. Remember when they warned us that the attack was likely to begin on February 16? They were off by a full week — although, given how much foresight they had with respect to this operation, it’s hard to hold that against them:

The Biden admin started privately warning three months ago that this Russian invasion into Ukraine was being planned and would likely go down in February, sources told us in November. The Kremlin called the intel “empty and unfounded.” https://t.co/xdyHhtwwBL

— Jennifer Jacobs (@JenniferJJacobs) February 24, 2022

Moreover, I’m not so sure U.S. intel was wrong about the original start date for the invasion. The video of a Russian-backed separatist leader describing alleged Ukrainian provocations in disputed territory was posted last week on the 18th, but the video’s metadata indicated that it was recorded on … the 16th:

According to metadata, today‘s video of separatist leader of LNR on ongoing escalation was recorded two days ago, on 16th of February. Which corroborates initial intelligence assessment regarding 16.02 as a day for Russian attack on #Ukraine. Its all fake from A to Z pic.twitter.com/xcVnhJWqfM

— Sergiy Koshman (@Koshman) February 18, 2022

Putin’s decision to attack also seems to have been made much earlier than his announcement last night suggested:

🔴Open-source data suggests that Putin may have recorded his address declaring an invasion of Ukraine earlier this week, reports @Nat_Vasilyeva

Metadata on the video of Mr Putin's address suggests that it was recorded no later than 7 p.m. on Mondayhttps://t.co/0do2isJcbn pic.twitter.com/ODhmt1mm5T

— The Telegraph (@Telegraph) February 24, 2022

The Daily Mail noticed that, coincidentally, Putin wore the same suit and tie in “yesterday’s” announcement of war as he wore in Monday’s rambling speech listing his grievances against Ukraine. It’s possible that America’s intelligence bureaus missed (slightly) on when the invasion was set to begin but it’s also possible that it really was set to start on the 16th and Putin delayed it once the U.S. publicized that date, not wanting to concede that America was reading his battle plans surreptitiously.

Whether the CIA and NSA were totally right or only mostly right, they were more right than they usually are. That’s a small step on the very long journey of rebuild the American people’s trust after Iraq and Afghanistan:

Speaking of Afghanistan, I’ll leave you with Clarissa Ward of CNN, whom you’ll remember from her on-the-ground reporting during the withdrawal from Kabul. She’s in Ukraine now, huddled underground with the locals as they take shelter. If this looks like the Blitz, well, that’s because it basically is.

Stunning reporting from @clarissaward sheltering in a subway station in Kharkiv where hundreds of people, children and dogs are hiding from airstrikes, in scenes reminiscent of the Blitz pic.twitter.com/I7hHEtOKue

— Nora Neus (@noraneus) February 24, 2022