Polls close in Virginia in exactly one hour. Let’s get the prognosticator-in-chief on the record before they do. Watch, then read on.

President Biden: "I think we're going to win in Virginia … I think we're going to win New Jersey as well."

Full video: https://t.co/pYntzEfvZi pic.twitter.com/V3lN0koEfh

— CSPAN (@cspan) November 2, 2021

There are two types of information floating around on social media right now and I’m going to give you both, never mind that one of those types requires me to break a cardinal rule of election-night coverage.

The early exit polls are out, and even though one must never cite the early exits after the debacle in 2004 that showed John Kerry winning the presidency, let’s do it anyway. Just treat these as “interesting” and don’t get your hopes up too high because of them.

NBC #VAGOV exit poll:

Trump fav: 41/54
Youngkin fav: 53/44

— Josh Kraushaar (@HotlineJosh) November 2, 2021

McAuliffe fav: 44/53

— Josh Kraushaar (@HotlineJosh) November 2, 2021

NBC #VAGOV exit poll:

Biden approval:

Approve 43
Disapprove 56

— Josh Kraushaar (@HotlineJosh) November 2, 2021

An electorate that doesn’t like Trump but does like Glenn Youngkin is an electorate that didn’t buy Democrats’ argument that Youngkin is Trump 2.0. And an electorate that likes Youngkin a lot more than Terry McAuliffe is an electorate that’s primed to make Youngkin governor. Hmmmm.

Also very much ungood for Dems:

So much for the early exits. The other, more reliable data circulating as I write this is the turnout trends across the state. According to multiple election analysts, Virginia looks set to blow the roof off — which isn’t necessarily good for Youngkin:

I never, ever expected turnout to be this high. Here's the thing though, it's not just up in NoVA. It's up everywhere. Rurals, suburbs, exurbs, cities, etc. We obviously don't know the increase from 17 in every locality, no way I'm calling all 133. 1/2

— Chaz Nuttycombe (@ChazNuttycombe) November 2, 2021

Based on local turnout reports, VA is on track to break 3 million votes, which would surpass gubernatorial record of 2.6M set in 2017.

Not clear which side that benefits, but this isn't a scenario in which turnout in blue areas is falling through the floor. #VAGOV

— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) November 2, 2021

In a blue state that broke for Biden by 10 points, high turnout would normally be encouraging for Dems. Their nightmare scenario was having their base fall asleep on the race while Republicans marched to the polls en masse. That doesn’t seem to be happening:

It's hard to say with what's in so far who has the edge given the lack of turnout information in heavily-black localities like Norfolk, Portsmouth, Hampton, Richmond. If you put that aside, the D's, but R's are getting pretty good turnout too in their big counties.

— Chaz Nuttycombe (@ChazNuttycombe) November 2, 2021

The question is, what happens if turnout in blue areas is good but turnout in red areas is *great*? Are there enough Republicans left in Virginia to swamp the Dems even if Team Blue is getting solid turnout?

Apparently Roanoke County met 70% of its 2017 vote as of *10AM*. This is a Republican bastion in SWVA that's Trump+20

— Chaz Nuttycombe (@ChazNuttycombe) November 2, 2021

As strong as turnout has been in blue areas, red areas looking even higher. Rockingham Co. (Trump +40) now up to 116% of its '17 turnout, w/ three hours left to go. By comparison, Charlottesville (Biden +73) is at only 89% of its '17 turnout. https://t.co/dDG3cBBA30

— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) November 2, 2021

Anything could happen tonight. McAuliffe winning comfortably seems hard to imagine given the polling and the momentum shift over the past month but any other scenario seems plausible. Maybe independents are about to crush the Democrats, handing Youngkin a victory of some greater or lesser margin. Or maybe there are just too many Dems in the state to overcome when they’re turning out in reasonably high numbers.

Biden says he’ll be landing in the U.S. tonight at around 1 a.m. ET, returning from his trip to Europe. Will he arrive to find that his party averted disaster or will he arrive to a blowout Youngkin victory that singlehandedly shattered his national agenda? We’ll know seven hours from now.