Pelosi and her team are so desperate to keep their promise to House moderates about holding a vote on Thursday that they declined to adjourn last night. Which means that today, legislatively, is still … yesterday. Centrist Dem leaders are participating in the charade too, to the embarrassment of everyone:

It ain’t over yet! This is just one long legislative day — we literally aren’t adjourning. Negotiations are still ongoing, and we’re continuing to work. As I said earlier: grabbing some Gatorade and Red Bull.

— Rep Josh Gottheimer (@RepJoshG) October 1, 2021

Progressives couldn’t resist dunking on them for it:

In Congress, we don’t make predictions like this until we know we have the votes. Some of us get this, others bluff & fall on their face.

Hopefully, @JoshGottheimer and the other 4% of Democrats will not obstruct but negotiate and help us get @POTUS’s agenda done for the people. https://t.co/VxeY0ueYjK

— Ilhan Omar (@IlhanMN) October 1, 2021

Through the magic of shameless gaslighting (the same magic by which a bill that costs $3.5 trillion actually costs nothing), Pelosi will have kinda sorta fulfilled her pledge to hold on September 30 if she holds it later this afternoon. And she sounded determined as she left the Capitol last night, telling reporters that “there will be a vote today.”

But is that still true? An ominous note from Dem Rep. Jan Schakowsky:

Congresswoman Jan Schakowsky says there won’t be a vote on infrastructure today.

— John McCormack (@McCormackJohn) October 1, 2021

The fact that Kyrsten Sinema is a few thousand miles away also doesn’t bode well for Dems:

Sen. Sinema, like many senators, has left DC today amid the breakneck talks on Biden’s agenda, @heatherscope and I are told. She “is in Phoenix where she has a medical appointment today, and where she continues remote negotiations with the White House,” her office says.

— Burgess Everett (@burgessev) October 1, 2021

On the other hand:

New: House Democratic Caucus Chair @RepJeffries told reporters he believes bipartisan infrastructure bill will pass today: “The Speaker has indicated that we're going to vote today, I expect to vote today, and I expect that the bill will pass today,” he said.

— Jim Sciutto (@jimsciutto) October 1, 2021

It’s possible that Pelosi will put the bill on the floor for a gut-check vote, not knowing whether it’ll pass or not as negotiations between progressives, centrists, and the White House continue behind the scenes. If the bill hits the floor today and progressives tank it, it may amount to nothing more than a harmless bit of muscle-flexing while the two sides haggle over the final price of the reconciliation bill. (Of course, it could also lead to Sinema walk away from negotiations because her demand that the House pass the bipartisan bill first wasn’t met.) If, on the other hand, the bill hits the floor and it passes because there are enough Republicans voting in favor to replace the progressives who are voting against, then .. I don’t know what happens.

Would Pelosi even want the bill to pass in those circumstances? The lefties who vote no on it will be furious with her for wrecking their leverage. And having the bill pass before a reconciliation deal has been struck could upend negotiations, as Manchin and Sinema would no longer have anything to gain by continuing with the reconciliation process.

Some subset of progressives continues to insist that they want to see the Senate vote first on an actual reconciliation bill, not just have Pelosi and Manchin agree to a “framework” or a “deal” or what have you.

Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.): “We need a vote. We need to be real… I know we’re all committed to the same goal.”

Progressive caucus chair Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.): “I have consistently said that we need a vote in the Senate because I want to make sure that there are no delays, that there are no mix ups, that there are no mixed understandings about what the deal is… It’s both content and process.”

That’s not going to happen. So Pelosi really will need to replace those progressive votes with Republicans. How many are out there?

The big sticking point in negotiations on reconciliation is the topline number, reportedly. Lefties wanted $3.5 trillion; Manchin wants something closer to $1.5 trillion. When Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez was asked about his number yesterday, she sneered, “Uhh, for one year?” (The topline number accounts for 10 years of spending.) Is there anyone in Washington who can bring the two sides closer together?

Maybe one guy. He’s going to give it a shot today.

🚨President Biden is going to Capitol Hill to meet with members of the Democratic caucus this afternoon, the White House just announced

— Jacqui Heinrich (@JacquiHeinrich) October 1, 2021

NEW: sources tell me this is what’s happening right now – Pelosi is privately trying to gauge how many votes she has for a vote on the bipartisan infrastructure bill, weighing whether to bring it to the floor.

— Jacqui Heinrich (@JacquiHeinrich) October 1, 2021

The White House has been trying to get Manchin and Sinema to agree to a $2.1T reconciliation deal, but the framework is not enough for progressives to vote for the bipartisan bill. Biden now traveling to the Hill is a significant part of this effort to get it done.

— Jacqui Heinrich (@JacquiHeinrich) October 1, 2021

Two questions now. One: How many progressives will accept a “framework” on reconciliation in lieu of the Senate actually voting on a bill? Two: Of that number, how many are comfortable enough with $2.1 trillion to reward Biden by voting for the bipartisan infrastructure bill today if Manchin and Sinema agree to it?

Lotta intrigue! But the most intriguing infrastructure-related news tidbit to emerge has to be this:

.@DebDingell just said on CNN that Pelosi didn't know about @Sen_JoeManchin's document from July to Schumer about his topline of $1.5T for the economic document until this week. Notable.

— Daniella Diaz (@DaniellaMicaela) October 1, 2021

Chuck Schumer knew for two months that Manchin was at $1.5 trillion on reconciliation and he never once told Pelosi? Was Schumer working on Manchin behind the scenes, keeping his topline number a secret in hopes that he could move him upward off of it so long as it wasn’t public knowledge? If Pelosi had known sooner, she could have begun the process of getting progressives to come to terms with a smaller bill weeks or months ago. Instead Schumer, her Senate partner, apparently blindsided her.

These idiots waited until the week of the House vote to start negotiating on reconciliation with hard numbers when those numbers had been privately available since the middle of summer. Good lord.

We’ll see if Biden can swing a miracle when he meets with House Dems this afternoon. I’ll leave you with this in the meantime.

It is unacceptable that our bipartisan infrastructure bill, which is vital to our economy and necessary to keep important transportation programs going, is being held hostage by the most extreme House Democrats for a completely unrelated and still unwritten piece of legislation. pic.twitter.com/Pj1gKU3GqU

— Senator Mitt Romney (@SenatorRomney) October 1, 2021