This is the one strategy no one thought to try. We’ve tried public education campaigns, we’ve tried shaming vax skeptics, we’ve even tried vaccine lotteries.
But what if all we needed to do to push holdouts into getting their shots was have America’s foremost scientific agency issue guidance that might plausibly lead the entire country to unmask immediately?
Suddenly all the unvaccinated people who thought (wrongly) that they were protected in public places because everyone was masked up had to confront a “new normal” in which hardly anyone was. For hardcore anti-vaxxers, that’s no sweat: They think the risk from COVID is low and that natural immunity is safer than vaccine immunity so they’re okay with getting infected. But for people who are merely ambivalent about the vaccine or who want to get the jab but haven’t gotten around to it yet, the prospect of suddenly having to share close quarters in stores and restaurants with maskless, possibly contagious strangers may have scared them right into making an appointment.
That is to say, the sheer recklessness of the CDC’s out-of-the-blue authorization for vaccinated people to unmask, resulting in mask mandates being rescinded across the country, may have had the unintended virtue of incentivizing vaccinations. Or at least that’s what Time magazine’s new poll suggests:
Note the third line. Forty-one percent who’ve been vaccinated or will be soon say they’re worried about other people unmasking and exposing them to the virus. Compare that to the mere 20 percent who say they’re motivated by the prospect of being able to leave home without a mask. That was the incentive the new CDC guidance was designed to provide. If you get your shots, you don’t need to mask up anymore.
But it turns out relatively few vaccine holdouts care about that. Most of them seem to be comfortable masking up. What they’re worried about are the people who aren’t, who think COVID is a hoax or whatever and will take advantage of the end of mask mandates to unmask even though they’re not vaccinated.
And they’re right to worry about those people. Check out the last few lines of this YouGov table:
There’s basically no difference in willingness to travel this summer between the fully vaccinated and the refuseniks, which is in line with other polls showing that the unvaccinated are even more likely to socialize than vaccinated people are. Notice which groups are least likely to travel, though — it’s the “soft” holdouts, the people who aren’t sure or who want to get immunized but haven’t gotten around to it yet. Those people know they’re at risk and, unlike the hardcore anti-vaxxers, aren’t cavalier about the threat from infection. They’re the same group, I suspect, that’s telling Time’s pollster that they’re more likely to get vaccinated now that the CDC has inadvertently brought the end of mandatory masking in America.
Fear isn’t the only incentive that works, though. Two days ago Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine posted an update on how vaccinations are going in his state since he announced the new “vax-a-million” lottery:
After announcing this promotion, we’ve seen the biggest increase in vaccinations in the 16-17 y/o age group: a 94% increase. Among 18 & 19 year olds, there has been a 46% increase. From the 20-49 age group, a 55% increase in vaccinations.
— Governor Mike DeWine (@GovMikeDeWine) May 24, 2021
Tonight they’re giving away the first of five $1 million prizes. Here’s DeWine on CNN this morning touting the success of appealing to his constituents’ greed.
Gov. Mike DeWine (R-OH) on state’s first vaccine lottery drawing tonight:
“Not only is there going to be a millionaire tonight … but, even more important is the number of Ohioans who have gotten vaccinated.” pic.twitter.com/kg5q8BK1wC
— The Recount (@therecount) May 26, 2021
