There are fool’s-gold states for Democrats just like there are fool’s-gold states for Republicans (ahem), i.e. states that look like they should be in play demographically and which a few polls might suggest really are in play — and then Election Day comes and goes and the majority party ends up winning easily there after all. Texas, I think, is a typical fool’s-gold state for Democrats this year. It’s close! But Trump won’t lose it.

Arizona, though? Not fool’s gold. He really might lose that one. If you didn’t believe me after reading this post, believe Team Clinton, which is bringing out the big guns:

Michelle Obama will campaign for Hillary Clinton in Arizona soon, a top Democrat tells @jeffzeleny.

— Dan Merica (@merica) October 17, 2016

They wouldn’t waste the time of an A-list surrogate like Michelle Obama, especially this late in the race, on a state they didn’t think they could win. The point of having FLOTUS there, I think, is to leverage her sheer star power: Hillary wants all of Arizona media oohing and ahhing over the fact that they’re competing seriously for the state and the surest way to impress that upon them, short of Barack Obama or Clinton herself doing last-minute events there, is to send a big name like Michelle Obama. The more Democratic voters understand that the state is in play, the more incentive they have to turn out on November 8th. But in case that’s not enough to convince you, the Clinton campaign is prepared to gamble on Arizona financially too:

Robby Mook, on a conference call, announces the campaign is dumping $2m in AZ to win the state and $1m in MO and IN to help Dem races.

— Dan Merica (@merica) October 17, 2016

Two million bucks, huh? Even if Arizona turns into fool’s gold for Democrats, a big spend like that at least forces Trump to defend his territory. Or does it?

“I think he’s going to lose Arizona,” said Matthew Benson, a Republican state operative and former senior aide to Gov. Jan Brewer. “Barring something unforeseen, Trump is going to lose Arizona, and you’re still not seeing the type of activity you’d expect to see if he expects to save it.”…

The campaign has not put up any broadcast TV or radio spots in Arizona, and it has committed just $15,000 for mailers for the remainder of this month and $7,000 for the final week of the campaign.

Asked if more funds directly from the campaign and the RNC are wanted and if they have been requested, a state GOP party official told NBC News: “Of course.”

“We’ll take anything,” the official said.

That story, from NBC, was published yesterday afternoon. In case Clinton didn’t have enough of an incentive to contest Arizona already, the news that Trump has essentially left her with an empty net there must have proved irresistible to Democrats. With 11 electoral votes, Arizona in the blue column would replace more than half the EVs lost to Republicans if, as expected, Trump wins Ohio’s 18 this year. Needless to say, if he’s on the brink of losing Romney states from 2012, his path to 270 nationally is completely blocked.

Oh, by the way: Democrats are ready to play in the true fool’s-gold state too, just in case there’s some real gold buried there after all.

Just in: @HillaryClinton's campaign is launching a one-week ad buy in Texas, per an aide.

— Patrick Svitek (@PatrickSvitek) October 17, 2016

I think that’s more of a Clinton psy op than anything else — “all your base are belong to us” — but nothing would surprise me anymore. Exit question: Is Alaska fool’s gold or real gold? Don’t look now but it’s a one-point race there.