Somewhere Chris Christie and Jeb Bush (and Paul Ryan?) are high-fiving.

Dude, I’m nervous:

Gov. Scott Walker and Democratic challenger Mary Burke are in a dead heat heading into the November election, with Walker leading 46%-45% among registered voters, according to the latest Marquette University Law School poll released Wednesday.

Among likely voters, Burke led Walker, 47%-46%.

The results were all inside the margin of error.

I was nervous two months ago too, after the last Marquette poll dropped and showed Walker and Burke dead even at 46 among registered voters but Walker up 48/45 among likely voters. Today it’s Burke who leads ever so slightly among likelies. That’s within the margin of error, of course, so you can see this glass as half-full if you like — Walker might still be a tiny bit ahead! — but an incorrigible eeyore like me naturally sees it half-empty insofar as he hasn’t gained any ground since May. The slight shift among likely voters isn’t the only bad trend either:

Among independents: Walker 45%, Burke 44%. In May, among independents, it was Walker 49%, Burke 40%. #mulawpoll

— MULawPoll (@MULawPoll) July 23, 2014

9% say WI is creating jobs faster than other states, 42% say it’s about the same as other states, 43% say WI lags other state. #mulawpoll

— MULawPoll (@MULawPoll) July 23, 2014

In May, it was 13% saying faster, 38% saying the same, and 43% saying WI is lagging. #mulawpoll

— MULawPoll (@MULawPoll) July 23, 2014

His approval and favorable ratings have also dropped by a couple of points. That may be noise, but the bottom line is that he hasn’t established an edge on Burke yet. And needless to say, unlike lots of other state-level Democratic candidates, Burke can count on lots of dough from liberals down the stretch this fall in the name of knocking off Walker before he becomes a 2016 threat. He’s outraised her thus far, partly because he’s a conservative rock star and partly because he’s an incumbent, but Burke’s got a fair chance to catch up if Democratic Senate chances start to go sour and liberals begin focusing on her as their best chance for a big win. In fact, I wonder how much better Burke might be doing money-wise right now if not for Wendy Davis’s lame, futile campaign for governor in Texas. Burke raised $3.6 million in the first half of this year (Walker raised $8.2 million); since February, Davis has raised more than $11 million. Lots of that is due, of course, to the relative sizes of Texas’s and Wisconsin’s populations, but Davis has plenty of financial support from outside Texas too. If you’re a Democrat looking for the most bang for your political buck, you’re far better off trying to nuke a serious Republican presidential contender in a tight race in Wisconsin by sending your money to Burke than you are throwing it into the “yay, abortion!” sinkhole of Davis’s campaign. Let’s hope their stupidity keeps up throughout the fall. It might be the difference between President Walker and President Hillary in 2017.

Exit question: In a blue state, this can only be good news, right?

68% of registered voters say they are “absolutely certain” to vote in November. Before Nov. 2012, election, 89% said that. #mulawpoll

— MULawPoll (@MULawPoll) July 23, 2014